Date: Sat, 12 Apr 1997 12:11:54 -0400 (EDT)
From: Louis N Proyect <lnp3-AT-columbia.edu>
Subject: M-I: Zaire


March 26, 1997

Info-Zaire - No 125

Translated from a document produced by Entraide Missionnaire (Emi)
- Montreal

The War Continues

It is well known that on February 18, the Security Council of the
United Nations adopted a five point plan aimed at putting an end
to the war which is raging in Zaire.  First and foremost, it
called for an immediate end to hostilities.  After having dragged
its heels somewhat because the resolution did not condemn the
invading countries, the Zairian government was forced to agree to
the terms of the plan on March 4, and to call for its immediate
implementation.  This was because the Alliance des forces
democratiques pour la liberation du Congo-Zaire (AFDL) had been
chalking up victory after victory.

In fact, nothing seems capable of stopping the advance of the AFDL
forces.  On March 2, they seized Lubutu and the Tingi-Tingi camps,
which had recently been abandoned by Rwandan refugees who have
fled further to the west.  From the north, east and south, AFDL
forces converged on the city of Kisangani.  Kisangani is Zaire's
third largest city, the capital of Haut-Zaire, and above all, the
location of Zaire's principal concentration of counter-offensive
military forces.  The city was defended simultaneously by the
Zairian army, Serbian mercenaries, UNITA soldiers from Angola, and
by soldiers of the former Rwandan army (whose commander, Augustin
Bizimungu had already fled - it should be noted).  Few observers
expected Kisangani to fall so quickly.  On March 12, Prime
Minister Kengo had stated that Zaire's advantage lay in its
immense size, and that the rebels had not reached the gates of
Kisangani.  Two days later, on the evening of March 14, the
mercenaries fled, following an attack by soldiers of the Zairian
army who were supposed to have been their allies.  Then the
Governor, along with General Mabilo Mulimbi, also left.  The
soldiers pillaged the city in the early morning.  They then
departed, leaving the AFDL troops to enter the city with no
resistance in the early afternoon of March 15.

AFDL soldiers have continued to advance in Shaba province as well.
They have followed on the heels of the Zairian soldiers who,
fleeing by rail, have been pillaging all of the towns and villages
on their route:  Nyunzu, Kabalo, Kitenge....  In Kabongo however,
the AFDL forces were reportedly stopped by soldiers from Kamina.
On March 2, the mining town of Manono was taken without fighting,
and without being pillaged.  To the north, the town of Kongolo
also escaped being pillaged, thanks to a courageous Police Chief
who disarmed a group of DSP soldiers there.  The rebels entered
Kongolo on or about March 8, with no fighting.  They received a
warm welcome from the population there.  The AFDL is therefore now
at the gates of Kasai.

)From Kalemie southward, Kabila's soldiers took Moba on March 9,
then announced that Mpweto had fallen to them on March 16.  As
they advance further south, they will meet with supporters from
Burundi who are part of Leonard Nyangoma's Forces de defense de la
democratie (FDD).  They are close to Lubumbashi, which they could
take quite easily if the soldiers of the Zairian army flee as they
have everywhere else.  They will be welcomed by a population happy
to be rid of the Zairian soldiers and their corrupt
administrators.

AFDL troops are continuing to advance in several directions.  They
are reported to have already reached Yangambe, 100 km west of
Kisangani.  From Kindu and Kongolo, they are advancing towards
Mbuji-Mayi, the diamond capital of the province of Kasai Oriental.
There too, the population will be happy to see them.  Even loyal
Mobutu supporter, Mukamba Kadiata Nzemba, who is in charge of the
major diamond producer, la Societe miniere de Bakwanga (MIBA), was
quoted March 12 in The London Financial Times, as saying:  "I
obeyed Mobutu when he was the boss, but he is not immortal.  I
will cooperate with whoever succeeds him.  I can work under
Kabila, and that would not make me a traitor."  If Mbuji-Mayi and
Lubumbashi were to fall, the rebels would control Zaire's
principal sources of revenue, and will have taken from Mobutu a
principal source of his own personal income.

Following The Fall Of Kisangani

The fall of a city as important as Kisangani has left the Zairian
population in shock.  It leads one to think that even with the
help of mercenaries and foreign troops, the Zairian army is in
complete disarray, and that nothing can now stop the AFDL forces.
Besides, as they continue their advance, hundreds of soldiers of
the Forces armees zairoises (FAZ) are changing sides.  What is
more, it seems that the entire population of Zaire wants Kabila to
take control of the country as of now.  At the beginning of the
rebellion, the people feared the country would be broken up; now
they hope that Kabila will deliver them from Mobutu's regime.

In Kinshasa, panic has spread with the fall of Kisangani.  On
March 18, the Haut conseil de la republique-parlement de
transition (HCR-PT) voted to dismiss Prime Minister Kengo in a
nearly unanimous vote by those present:  464 of the 740 members of
the HCR-PT participated in the vote, and 445 of them voted in
favour of the dismissal.  The validity of the action was
immediately contested, since the Acte constitutionnel requires
that three-quarters of the deputies be present for any vote.
There were rumours of a coup d'etat, and fears that the FAZ would
begin pillaging Kinshasa.  This led General Mahele to declare on
March 19, that the army had no intention of taking the place of
the political leaders, since this was not its constitutional
mandate.  The same day, Mahele addressed the Zairian soldiers,
calling upon them to respect the law, and to protect the people
and their property.  But fears of serious trouble in Kinshasa have
not dissipated.  Most of the foreign powers with people in the
country have advised their nationals to leave Zaire, and thousands
of Zairian men and women have been forced to flee towards
Brazzaville, where some of Mobutu's family is reportedly seeking
refuge.  The United States, France, Belgium and Great Britain have
even sent more than a thousand paracommandos, ready to intervene
if necessary, in the evacuation of their respective nationals.

President Mobutu's health has also fuelled rumours.  On the night
of March 13, he had to be rushed to hospital in Monaco for
emergency treatment.  There were even rumours that he had died.
However, on March 21, he returned to Kinshasa, no doubt in a
weakened state since he did not make a public appearance upon
leaving the plane.  On March 23, he was able to receive a group of
journalists in his residence at the Tshatshi camp.  He assured
them that he had not returned in order to take care of personal
interests, rather "the greater interests of the nation, namely
national unity and territorial integrity."  The next day, the head
of the Mouvement populaire de la revolution (MPR), Banza Mukalay,
announced that his party was ready to negotiate with Kabila.
After having met with Mobutu, Kengo resigned as Prime Minister.
Mobutu had indeed acted upon the HCR-PT decision, and the Kengo
government was deposed.  Following this, Mobutu presented his plan
to create a National Council made up of members from the various
political families in Zaire, in order to find a solution to the
crisis.  On March 25, Mobutu announced that he was prepared to
share power with the rebels in order to organise elections.

Diplomacy

It is not clear whether a diplomatic solution can be found which
will satisfy the Zairian people.  Several African countries, among
others, are putting pressure on both Mobutu and Kabila to call for
a cease-fire, and to follow the plan adopted by the Security
Council of the United Nations on February 18.  Mohamed Sahnoun,
who is both the United Nations Special Envoy and the OAU
representative, has met several times with Kabila.  On March 23,
Thabo Mbeki, representing South African President Nelson Mandela,
met with Mobutu.

At this moment, several African heads of state are meeting in
Lome, Togo in hopes of finding a solution to the crisis in the
Great Lakes region.  Zaire is represented by HCR-PT First
Vice-President, Bo-Boliko Lokonga; as well as by Mobutu's Special
Advisor, Honore Ngbanda.  For its part, the AFDL is represented by
Bizima Karaha and by Gaetan Kakudji, regarded as its Foreign
Affairs representatives.

Life In The 'Liberated Congo'

Now that the AFDL has taken control of eastern Zaire by force, it
is devoting itself to setting an administration in place through
which it can control the 'liberated zones'.  The initial actions
of this new administration give some idea of its leaning.

The AFDL was initially formed by four parties:  Laurent Kabila's
Parti de la revolution populaire (PRP); le Conseil national de
resistance pour la democratie (CNRD); le Mouvement revolutionnaire
pour la liberation du Zaire (MRLZ); and l'Alliance democratique
des peuples (ADP).  However, the make up of the 'executive
council' set in place to administrate the conquered territories
does not seem to reflect these initial alliances.  Besides Shaba
native Laurent Desire Kabila, the political leader of the AFDL who
had distinguished himself during the rebellions of 1964-1967, the
others have been little known up to now.  Among the 'General
Commissioners' who have been nominated up to this point are:
Raphael Ghenda, a Muluba from Kasai who, according to press
reports, has lived for more than 20 years in Belgium, to
Government Spokesperson and Commissioner of Information; Mwana
Nanga Mawapanga, a Mukongo from Bas-Zaire who left his position in
the United States as a professor at the University of Kentucky, to
AFDL Economy and Finance; both Pretoria medical doctor Bizima
Karaha, a Munyamulenge from Sud-Kivu, and Gaetan Kakudji, a Muluba
>from Shaba, who have spent more than 25 years in Belgium, to
External Affairs; Paul Kabongo, a Muluba from Kasai, to Security;
Samson Muzuri, a Munyamulenge from Sud-Kivu, to National
Education; Joseph Rubibi, also Munyamulenge from Sud-Kivu, to
Small- and Medium-Sized Businesses; Deogratias Bughera, a Tutsi
>from Nord-Kivu and founder of the ADP, as the General
Representative for Nord-Kivu; Nindanga Masasu, a Tutsi from
Sud-Kivu, as the General Representative for Sud-Kivu; and Mwenze
Kongola, a Muluba from Shaba brought in from Philadelphia in the
United States, to head up the Justice Department.

For the moment, Nord- and Sud-Kivu nationals make up the backbone
of the AFDL, and a large number of the Commissioners were chosen
>from among those who had left Zaire and settled elsewhere.
Besides Kabila, who is over 60, members of the Executive Council
are between 29 and 40 years old.

The country is to henceforth be known as la Republique
democratique du Congo.  The 1960 flag of the etat independant du
Congo flies over the 'liberated' territories, and the anthem
"Debout Congolais" is sung at assemblies, just as it was in the
first days following independence.

A great many civil servants in Kivu have been put out of work.
Those who remain now have to content themselves with issuing
permits and stamping official documents, much to the satisfaction
of the population.  For the moment, customs receipts represent a
major source of revenue.  At first the AFDL was tempted to issue a
new currency, the Congolese Franc, but at first abandoned the
project fearing that they might be accused of trying to secede.
However, in a speech given in Kisangani, Kabila resurrected the
project.  The official currencies now are the US dollar and the
new zaire (NZ) - with the exception of the most recent
denominations of NZ, known as 'prostates,' which are forbidden.
The exchange rate is set daily, and is announced on the radio.  At
the beginning of March, the rate varied between 85,000 and 90,000
NZ to $1 US, compared to 150,000 NZ in Kinshasa.  Import and
export taxes have been reduced by 70% in order to motivate
merchants to pay them faithfully.

Elsewhere, former heads of administration - at least those not
complicit in Mobutu's regime - are invited to remain at their
posts on the condition that they participate in ideological
reeducation sessions where they will study the ideas of Patrice
Lumumba and Laurent Desire Kabila.  The managers who graduate from
these 'revolutionary' training sessions are called upon to form
'tchembe-tchembe,' local units whose primary task is to ensure the
safety of their designated areas through surveillance of the
inhabitants.

As was the case in both Kindu and Kisangani, the crowds which
attend the speeches given by the new leaders are asked to ratify,
by a show of hands, the choice of the new administrative
authorities put forward by the AFDL.  Activities by all political
parties are forbidden as long as the war continues, with no
exceptions.  All media activities are also forbidden, with the
exception of the Radio du peuple in Goma.

These first decisions by the new leaders of Eastern Zaire seem
somewhat confusing.  The AFDL victories are being hailed by the
people as a deliverance from the reign of terror and corruption by
Mobutu's regime.  However, in preparing for life after Mobutu,
Kabila and his 'Commissioners' seem to have ignored local people
and groups who, since 1990, have daily devoted themselves to
preparing for the 'changeover,' particularly in Kivu.  Is it
simply that they are oblivious to the new Zairian reality since
the transition, or is this a strategy designed to distance their
eventual opposition?  Only time will tell.

Kabila Wants To Be Governor

Following Laurent Desire Kabila's address to the population of
Kisangani last March 22, it has become somewhat more clear how he
plans to govern Zaire.

As long as the war continues, all political parties are forbidden
to operate in the liberated areas, with the exception of those
which belong to the Alliance des forces democratiques pour la
liberation du Congo-Zaire.  Following the liberation of the entire
territory, Kabila intends to form a transition government formed
exclusively of members of the AFDL and the true opposition.  As
for his personal plans for the future, Kabila is stating that he
will not run for President of the Republic and that he will return
to private life as soon as Zaire is liberated.

Kabila and his army certainly have the right to their vision of a
new Zaire.  However, there are certain unavoidable legal and
sociopolitical realities which cannot be ignored by anyone who
would reform Zaire:  consensus on the agreements reached at the
CNS with respect to the organisation of the government and the
State; as well as the work accomplished by civil society in making
the population aware of and willing to exercise all of its rights
and freedoms.  By outlawing all activities by political parties in
the liberated zones, Kabila is undermining the slow and important
process of learning to understand the mechanisms by which
democracy operates - by way of interaction between political
parties.  This is causing some speculation as to what Kabila's
methods of governing will be:  perhaps a return to the abhorrent
single party State, and to yet another kind of dictatorship.  In
hoping to form a government dominated by the AFDL, he is turning
against the other political parties and their bases of support,
which he will only be able to silence through violence - and
violence cannot be tolerated in a democracy.

The unarmed opposition, which saw in Kabila an ideal partner who
was pursuing the goal of democracy, is becoming disoriented.  Once
it has passed beyond this confusion however, the opposition will
likely dissociate itself from Kabila's political agenda. Kabila
will then have to brace himself for the daily task of running an
enormous country fraught with contradictions.

Genocide or Massacre?

The devastating testimony on the massacre of Hutu refugees in
Kivu, made in mid-February to the Security Council of the United
Nations, as well as to Amnesty International, and finally to the
Western Embassies and Consulates, has provoked various reactions.

First, on February 22, Belgian Secretary of State for Cooperation,
Reginald Moreels, officially recognised the report, and declared
that the AFDL rebels, who have the support of Kigali, had
committed "genocide" with respect to the Hutu refugees in Zaire.
He mitigated his comments somewhat several days later, speaking
rather of "the possibility of genocide in retaliation."...

On March 4, a French spokesperson - the Minister of Foreign
Affairs, Jacques Rummelhardt - stated that France considered
"unfortunately credible" the information contained in the report
and hoped that an international commission would be convened to
bring the truth to light.

However, on February 28, the coordinator of the HCR for Kivu,
Filipo Grandi categorically denied that 500,000 refugees had
disappeared as stated in the report.  He declared:  "such a
massacre could not have escaped our attention."  In tallying the
refugees rescued by his organisation, he estimated rather that
there remained only 200,000 refugees still unaccounted for.  He
admitted that some refugees had been killed by AFDL and FAZ troops
as well as by their own militias, but concluded that there was no
proof that such a massacre had happened.

Yet another formal denial was put forward on March 10, by Mgr
Faustin Ngabu while he was on a visit to Paris.  The Bishop of
Goma and President of the Conference episcopale du Zaire views the
document as "partisan, dishonest and irresponsible," and declared:
"if there had been a genocide, I would have felt it."

Even in Goma, members of civil society interviewed by the Western
media have chosen their words very carefully.  They have stated
that "massacres between communities," particularly in Masisi, have
certainly happened, along with unexplained disappearances and
kidnappings by the AFDL, but there has been no systematic massacre
of the refugees....

Nonetheless, another report, this one produced by the Association
zairoise des droits de l'homme (AZADHO), was made public on March
1.  It tells of meticulously organised massacres on such a wide
scale, that they can only be described as genocide.  The AZADHO
gathered its information from members of the organisation who had
stayed behind after Goma fell.  The report states that the
massacres were carried out by Zairian and Rwandan Tutsis in
retaliation for the deaths of close relatives during the 1994
genocides in Rwanda, and for the hunting down of Tutsis in
1995-1996 in Zaire.  They were not only after the Rwandan
refugees, but the Zairian Hutu population as well.  The Mai-Mai
militia, which is mostly Hunde, whose community was driven out of
Masisi by Zairian and Rwandan Hutus in 1993 and 1995-1996, are
reported to have actively participated in the killings, sanctioned
and supported by the AFDL.  On March 6, Radio Star, the AFDL radio
station in Goma, called insistently upon the AZADHO to retract its
statements.  In the face of thinly veiled threats, the AZADHO
issued a new statement, warning the new authorities in Kivu
against taking any repressive actions against its members, as well
as against any of the "human rights activists operating in the
areas under rebel control."

Elsewhere, on February 25, eight priests and three members of
religious orders who were all Rwandan Hutus, were assassinated two
days after Kalima fell to the AFDL forces.  This has continued to
fuel speculation that the Hutu are being hunted down in the east
of Zaire.

Faced with such troubling accusations, and with ever-increasing
eyewitness accounts, the High Commissioner for Human Rights,
Ayalla Lasso called upon both sides presently in conflict in Zaire
to respect international laws on human rights.  He declared that
he is prepared to send human rights observers to the area, on the
condition that their safety be guaranteed by both sides, and if he
receives the necessary financial aid.  He also asked the Special
Rapporteur on Zaire, Roberto Garreton, to verify the allegations,
and to make a report at the next session of the United Nations
Human Rights Commission.  On March 25, the Special Rapporteur
undertook a one week mission in eastern Zaire to "attempt to
verify as much information and testimony as possible on the
numerous allegations of violations of international laws on human
rights (...) in the areas occupied by the AFDL."

Refugees Or Abandoned?

Since attacks on the camps near Bukavu and Goma last November, the
Rwandan refugees who did not return to Rwanda have continued to
flee the combat zones.  As they move towards the west, the weakest
among them die as their health continues to deteriorate.

Over the past weeks, 170,000 refugees have gathered at
Tingi-Tingi, seven km from Lubutu, and are receiving aid from the
HCR.  However, as the rebels began approaching towards the end of
February, the camp emptied out.  Foreign workers from humanitarian
aid organisations were the first to leave.  Kinshasa reacted by
accusing the United Nations agencies of abandoning the refugees
and of provoking panic in Kisangani.  Eleven of these agencies
were ordered to leave the country.  At the same time, about one
hundred refugees who were able to pay the $800 US fare, arrived at
Tingi-Tingi, Nairobi by plane.  While looking into the matter of
trafficking in falsified papers among the Rwandan community of the
city, Kenyan authorities made the decision to detain the new
arrivals, and to hand them over to the HCR.  About a hundred of
them reportedly still remain.

However, as the rebels approached Lubutu, the camp completely
emptied out, with the exception of those who were too weak to
leave.  The mass of refugees, still surrounded by soldiers of the
former FAR and the Interahamwe, was then directed 130 km further
north towards Ubundu.  Some 80,000 of them arrived there, and
managed to cross the river.  Others headed for Kisangani where, on
March 25, the HCR counted 10,000 refugees at a distance of less
than ten km from the city.

Tingi-Tingi finally fell into the hands of the rebels on March 1.
Kabila then asked the international aid agencies to continue to
bring support to the refugees, and promised to open a humanitarian
corridor to Rwanda.

It is in this dramatic context that, upon leaving a meeting in
Paris with French Minister of Foreign Affairs, Herve de Charette
on March 1, the Secretary General of the United Nations, Kofi
Annan, put forward the idea of an international humanitarian force
for eastern Zaire.  The proposal, which was supported by France,
met with opposition from the United States and Great Britain, and
was rejected by the Security Council on March 10.  In spite of a
second appeal by French President, Jacques Chirac, for a limited
intervention, the proposal was shelved.  For the moment,
Washington prefers to believe in a political solution to the
crisis.  In Kigali, Vice-President Paul Kagame for his part stated
on March 17 that an intervention of this kind would only serve to
worsen the situation, and that its promoters were motivated by
something more than humanitarian concerns.  He added that the
majority of the refugees had returned to the country, and that
those who remained in Zaire would have to pay the price for their
own poor judgement.  He sees no other solution than to continue to
urge them to return to Rwanda.  It must be remembered that one of
the Generals already indicated last November 22, that the only
refugees who remained in Zaire were those responsible for the
genocides - a statement which was echoed by the Rwandan Ambassador
to the United Nations on February 3.

The flight of the refugees to the west is therefore
understandable, while their leaders remain on in the government
controlled territories. It is also easy to understand the appeal
by HCR High Commissioner Sadako Ogata to the AFDL on March 16, not
to attack the Ubundu camp again.  AFDL Justice Commissioner,
Kongolo Mwenze responded on March 21, by advising the humanitarian
aid agencies to "stop crying" over the state of the Ubundu
refugees, and to come and get them.  For his part, the AFDL
representative in Nairobi confirmed that the AFDL could not
guarantee the safety of the refugees if they continued to move
towards the west.

A number of organisations are becoming increasingly worried about
the future of the refugees, as well as of those displaced by the
fighting in the east of the country.  Human Rights Watch put out
an urgent appeal on March 14 to American Secretary of State
Madeleine Albright, for protection for these displaced persons.
In addition, 36 missionary institutions, under the umbrella of the
Forum missionnaire sur le Zaire, are pleading with the
international community not to abandon these victims of disaster.
About 100,000 people are in danger of dying far from the cameras.
They are caught between two equally deadly choices:  to serve as a
human shield for the soldiers of the former FAR and the
Interahamwe in their fight against the AFDL; or to be all painted
with the same brush, as those responsible for the genocides.

A Profitable War

A number of questions which have been on everyone's mind since the
first cities were taken in Kivu, were put back on the table with
the fall of the city of Kisangani last March 15:  how can a
rebellion, which is said to have sprung from an underground
movement, so effectively defeat the military forces of an
increasingly larger part of Zaire?  And how can the defeat of the
Forces armees zairoises (FAZ) be explained?

As long as a conspiracy of silence looms over the question of who
Kabila's supporters are, it will be difficult to answer the first
question.  At any rate, certain information which has come to
light as the FAZ flee in all directions, gives a glimpse into what
the answer to the second question might be.

Lack of motivation within the troops can largely be explained by
the miserable conditions in which the rank and file soldier has
been left for years.  However, some of them have put up real
resistance to the rebels, particularly at Bukavu and Bafwasende.
It has even been reported, by both the government and the AFDL,
that several days before Kisangani fell, several battles took
place in which the FAZ seemed to be at a disadvantage.  What
happened?

For the answer, we must look towards how the army and indeed the
war, has been run.  It will be remembered that in the days
following the first defeats, General Eluki had been dismissed, and
several officers were brought before the courts.  The ensuing
trials were revealing.  Among other things, we learned that
Colonel Opango, stationed in Bukavu, had sold arms left behind by
the French following Operation Turquoise, to the highest bidder -
in particular to Tutsi nationals, who used them against the FAZ.
This explains why several weapons arsenals had already been
emptied out by the time the fighting started in Sud-Kivu.  Wisely,
the Colonel kept copies of orders authorising the sale, which had
been issued by two Generals, one of whom was General Tendele, who
was posted in Goma at the time.

More recently, following the hasty departure of the Governor of
Maniema, the soldiers' payroll, which he had 'forgotten' to
distribute..., was found in his office at Kindu.

Elsewhere, to support its 'lightning counter-offensive', the Kengo
government seems to have withdrawn between $50 and $70 million US
to purchase military equipment from private dealers, since Zaire
was placed under an arms embargo following the student massacres
in Lubumbashi in May of 1990.  In order to buy this equipment,
they did not call upon the Minister of Defence, nor upon the Chief
of Staff; rather, upon the usual underground network used by those
close to the President and the Prime Minister.  The result was a
sundry assortment of equipment, ill-suited to the terrain;
ammunition which did not match their firearms; end-of-line
machinery, with no spare parts; gasoline for their diesel engines
and so on....  In brief, it was a golden windfall for the
traffickers, who are continuing to pocket their commissions. It is
business as usual for those who will continue to profit and to
grow rich, until the very end of Mobutu's regime.

Angolan War On Zairian Soil

Last March 19, a spokesperson for the American State Department
stated that the involvement of neighbouring countries in the
Zairian conflict constituted "a most troubling development."  In
addition to naming Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi, he made mention of
a new player - Angola.

For some time now, Kinshasa and the AFDL have accused both the
Luanda government and the Union nationale pour l'independence
totale de l'Angola (UNITA) of coming to the aid of the enemy.
This was the scene when Kinshasa announced on March 14, that two
soldiers of the Forces armees angolaises were found among the
rebels killed in battle at Bafwasende.  These soldiers are
reported to have been part of a group which had accompanied former
Katangan officers, who had been refugees in Angola for decades, to
join the Zairian rebellion in Kivu.  A radio station run by the
Opposition in Angola, confirmed that the two soldiers were part of
the 1st regiment, which was stationed at Uige, in the north of the
country.

For his part, on March 15, Laurent Kabila accused Jonas Savimbi's
UNITA of having dispatched 2,000 soldiers to the FAZ as
reinforcements.  According to the American newspaper, the
Christian Science Monitor, the UNITA is reported to have deployed
200 troops in Shaba province during December.  Their numbers have
reportedly since swelled to 1,600 men, concentrated mainly in the
city of Kamina where the movement has long had a base of
operations behind the lines.  UNITA General Abilio Kamalata
'Numa,' was himself allegedly wounded during the taking of Bunia.

The reasons why these two bitter enemies in Angola would become
involved in the Zairian conflict are complex.  We know that a
peace treaty was reached in November 1994, under the auspices of
the United Nations, between the Luanda government and the UNITA.
This agreement was to have put an end to the 15-year civil war in
Angola.  But it seems that a real return to peace is late in
coming.

Jonas Savimbi does not appear ready to comply with the terms of
the peace agreement, nor to demobilise the army which kept him in
power even after he was defeated in the 1994 elections.  Above
all, he is not interested in turning over control of the diamond
mining region which has financed his rebellion, to the Luanda
government.  In addition, this traffic in precious stones, worth a
reported $500 million US per year, passes through Zaire and
Mobutu....  More than just a grateful gesture for services
rendered, the UNITA involvement with the FAZ is in answer to a
vested interest in the survival of the movement as a political and
military force in Angola itself.

This is the understanding of the Luanda government, which could
not pass up the opportunity to weaken its adversary by destroying
as many enemy bases behind the lines as possible, and to repay
Mobutu in kind for having supported the Angolan rebellion for so
long.  Luanda has every interest in the military defeat of the
UNITA in Zaire, while respecting its country's peace agreements at
the same time.  The Luanda government is also waiting to collect
on the dividends of this peace; such as, a $3 billion US
investment by the American company, Chevron, to exploit Angolan
petroleum resources.

Today, Zaire is paying for the regional politics of Mobutu, which
are based on interference and personal profit.  The latest example
of this was reported by the Washington Post on March 21: some of
those close to Mobutu are reported to have continued to sell
hundreds of tons of ammunition to Jonas Savimbi's Angolan rebels,
even though the FAZ is in retreat.

Risk Of Epidemic

A rare illness know as simian orthopox virus, which is related to
smallpox, has reappeared in the Katako-Kombe zone, in Kasai
Oriental.  The illness was identified in 1970, and had remained
confined to the region at the time.  It also appeared from
1982-1986, when 331 cases were diagnosed.  At the time, scientists
believed that the disease could only be transmitted by contact
with infected animals - squirrels or monkeys.  During follow-up
missions in August of 1996 and February of 1997, experts from the
World Health Organisation (WHO), along with members of the Centers
for Disease Control in Atlanta, Doctors Without Borders (Belgium),
and Zairian specialists, concluded that an epidemic was underway
in the zone:  98 cases were reported last February, among whom six
patients died.  The spread of the virus indicates that it can
indeed be transmitted between humans, which makes it all the more
dangerous.

The team of scientists believes that one of the causes of the
reappearance and spread of the infection lies in the fact that
campaigns to vaccinate the population against smallpox stopped 15
years ago.  In fact, the average age of those affected is 12
years, and three-quarters of them had not been vaccinated.

The researchers' last on-site investigation was interrupted by the
unexpected arrival of FAZ fugitives.  Their arrival resulted in at
least 30 deaths in the zone, not to mention the ensuing pillaging
and theft of property.  Following the passage of the FAZ soldiers
through the infected villages, the World Health Organisation now
fears that the disease will spread even further, as the soldiers
infect the populations along their path of flight.  The WHO is
also apprehensive about the arrival of Rwandan refugees into the
region.  The weakened state in which they find themselves will
make them easy targets for this singular virus.

Contributors to this issue:  Elonga Adjaje, Aleli Mboka, Roland
Rivard, Michel Sunguza, Kadari Mwene Kabyana, and Denis Tougas.

(translated into English by L. and J. Lazazzera - Toronto)

Info-Zaire  is also available in the original French version from
Entraide Missionnaire, 15 de Castelnau St. West, Montreal, Quebec
H2R 2W3 Tel. (514) 270-6089 Fax (514) 270-6156, and on the APC.WEB
network reg.africa and africa.news conferences.

The English version of Info-Zaire is posted through ICCAF on the
APC.WEB network reg.africa and africa.news conferences.
** End of text from cdp:headlines **

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