Date: Sat, 03 Apr 1999 23:31:52 -0500
From: roger <pelecat-AT-bellsouth.net>
Subject: Re: Why Tony Needed A War




danceswithcarp wrote:

> On Sat, 3 Apr 1999, roger wrote:
>
> > AND they get to open up
> > a big can of woop ass on the wogs.
>                ^^^^ ^^^
>
> That has to be the Georgia accent coming through.  Up here in
> Indy-by-gawd-anna, it's pronounced "+WUP+ ass."

you yankees never could talk rite.  that's why you lost the civil war i
figure.

>
>
> > the serbs really fucked this up public relations wise.
>
> Naw, damn near every european I've seen email from is convinced the U$ is
> the bad guy and europeans do no worng.
>
> Which is how you lose six-million jews.

ouch!  it's only funny cause it's true.

but don't sell our eurotrash cuz's short; i just heard tony the tiger blair
promise in no uncertain terms to the kosovars that john bull will make
everthing all right soon.  he all but guaranteed that nato will push serbia
out of kosovo.  i have a pretty good idea of who's troops he plans to use.

ok, i reckon it's still about a 50/50 chance that clinton/blair will wimp out
in the clutch, but in case they don't, well, that means a real war.  i'm
drunk enough to deal with this now, so we might as well plan it out:

Option 1 - short and fast: 7-14 days preparation

    tough one to pull off.  there's part of a heavy division in bosnia, the
equivilant of a light division in macedonia, and whatever can be pushed in by
air or over the adriatic coast: maybe a marine amphib unit ('bout a
division+) and a division+ airborne/airmobile.  total of a light corps
(30-50,000) with not much armor.  the advantage is speed and audacity.  the
disadvantage is speed and audacity.  macadonia and the geeks will resist
using their territory as a base but tough shit.  units in bosnia (reinforced
by rail to hungary and then by road through croatia and tusla with whatever
can be found) push through montenegro and link up with marines and airmobile,
then on to pristina to meet the macedonian-based troops moving in from the
other side.  the whole damn idea is pretty wacky.  forces are split, the
logistical base is not in place, the plan maximises the difficulty of the
terrain (moves through the roughest route to kosovo), does maximum political
damage to the alliance, and has the least chance of achieving the desired
goal.  other than that, it's bloody brilliant.

Option 2- medium rare, please: 10-28 days preparation

    this one has all the bells and whistles of option 1 with a few added
features:  namely a third front through albania.  nato just authorized the
dispatch of 6-8000 troops to albania, ostensibly for aid to the refugees.
sure.  methinks me smells a plan.  that's about the right size for a COSCOM
unit.  for you civilians that translates to a corps support command.  in
other words, it is a logistical base capable of supporting a full corps (up
to 100000 troops).  so add to the mix another marine unit and at least
another division+ of heavy armor and the odds look better.  this means that
the tough montenegrian front (necessary in option 1 for logistical support)
can be avoided and serbia proper left alone.  this will appeal to many in
nato.  if necessary, the whole shooting match can be deployed through albania
and even macedonia can take a pass.  it seems to have it all.  it ain't
macarthur at inchon but it also ain't a half bad plan.  i give it an 85; nice
beat, but i'm not sure you can dance to it.

Option 3- "a big mac and i'd like to supersize that invasion, please!":
21-45 days preparation

    this is the full meal deal.  develop the albanian deployment route AND
deploy the full weight and majesty of nato's heavy units through hungary
(knew they'd come in handy when we let 'em in nato the other week.  that's
what i call good timing).  this one is a perennial favorite and has the
wermacht (sorry, i mean nato) rolling down into beograd in a couple of weeks,
just like the good 'ole days back in '41.  the advantages are obvious.  it's
big, it's loud, and it comes with cup holders.  it's the sport utility
vehicle of invasions.  it also takes the war to millivanillivitch and will
thus appeal to those pesky gulf war critics who wanted to mount saddam's head
on a wall somewhere.  this is the juggernaut.  this is shiva, destroyer of
worlds ('scuse me while i do another shot of tequila).


ok, so there you have it.  curtain # 1:  for desperate suckers looking for a
quick fix.  curtain # 2:  elegant but limited.  has a pleasant, nineteenth
century air about it; like maybe something lee or jackson would have come up
with.  and behind curtain # 3 we have total war a la grant and sherman; the
twentieth century in a nutshell.

well, the century might as well end for europe in the bloody balkans, it's
where it began.  what the fuck is it with serbia?  they had only been a god
damn state for two fucking years before they managed to start the big one in
1914?  i'm sick of the standard line that "oh, it's too complicated to
explain the balkans," or "the hatreds there go back centuries, what can you
do," and other such drivel.  the hatreds in the balkans go back exactly as
far as the births of the people who hold them.  same as every fucking place
else.  and if a dumb ass hillbilly like me can tell the difference between an
Indigenous Native (the greeks called 'em illyrians and that's what many call
themselves) and a bunch of cutthroat johnny-come-lately slavs that have only
been there a few measly hundred years, then so can anybody.  right.

well, i'm not saying i'm happy about it, and it may yet not happen, but i
suspect that the serbs will soon have a new defeat to celebrate.  the mantle
is getting full of second place trophies:  kosovo 1389 (followed by a short
hiatus from competition), austria-hungary 1914, germany 1941 . . . and now
this.  sigh.  what goethe said about the krauts applies here:  "how can those
qualities that are so estimable in the individual be so wretched in the
generality?"  i'll drink to that.

later, dudes
roger