Date: Wed, 14 Apr 1999 18:55:48 GMT
Subject: How Long Will It Last ?



HOW  LONG  WILL  THE  WAR  LAST ?

according to various "experts" :

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Jonathan Eyal, 
Director of Studies
of the Royal United Services Institute :

>The war will last for many years and it will need
>forces on the ground for at least three or four years.

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Julian Brazer,
Tory MP,
member of the House of Commons
Defence Select Committee :

>The crisis is solvable in a minimum of one to two years,
>but it is most likely to drag on for a lot longer than that.
>Milosevic, unlike sadam Hussein, clearly has the consensus 
>of Serb people behind him. The democratic process 
>was working in Serbia up until a few weeks ago
>and there was a free media with people opposed 
>to Milosevic. But now everyone appears to be supporting
>him and he is not going to back down as a result
>of air strikes. 

>There really is no prosepct of an early end 
>to the war

>If a major invasion is launched, then much 
>of the burden will be felt by the USA because
>the British don't have the armed reserves.
>It will lead to an enormous cost in terms
>of bloodshed. We need to face the responsibility
>that if a settlement is imposed, there will 
>need to be troops there for at least five
>to ten years.

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Professor Michael Clarke,
Executive Director of 
the Centre For Defence Studies,
London :

>It is so unpredictable    -    NATO 
>is in uncharted territory and it is 
>impossible to say how long the war
>will last

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Mark Almond,
Lecturer in Modern History
Oxford University :

>I am sure Milosevic would agree to
>a peace package if the terms were right. 
>Part of the problem for NATO is that
>in a sense we have already burnt
>our bridges.

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Randolph Bourne :

>War is the health of the state