Date: Thu, 1 Apr 1999 23:03:04 -0500 (EST)
From: danceswithcarp <dcombs-AT-bloomington.in.us>
Subject: Re: The Anarchist Attitude To War




On Thu, 1 Apr 1999, Aaron Micheau wrote:

> another way to put it is, as i heard on Pacifica radio today, some
> 1,000,000 Iraqi civilians have died as a result of UN sanctions in the past
> eight years.  

I think the sanctions should go, and go quickly, and the no-fly cover for
airstrikes should disappear too.  But I have to question, again and again,
this assertion that 1,000,000 Irakis have died as a "result" of the
sanctions.

When the black death went through europe it was creditied with the near
destruction of civilization.  But if you look at graphs of death rates you
see some amazing curves.  Previous to the year(s) of the Black Death there
were few deaths overall in late winter and spring/summer, but in late
summer fall/early winter the graph spikes incredibly high; babies and
young in late summer/early fall from drinking heat and filth contaminated
water ("Weanling Disease") and old people in late fall/early winter from
respiratory ailments intensified by thewet and cold.

What the Black Death curve shows is a Big Spike in spring/early summer
from the plague and almost no increase in the traditional times of dying.  
Why?  Because the infants and young and old were most susceptible to
the plague and least able to flee, so they plague killed them slightly
ahead of schedule.

So, 1 million Irakis may have died since the sanctions went on, but until
someone shows numerically that the death rates are that much higher than
previous to the sanctions, I will question the number.  I'm not saying
it's worng, just that saying it's so don't make it so.

Not to mention that the UN observers and Doctors For Peace both said the
"medical supplies" and food bought with Iraki oil money isn't being
distributed by the state in order to inflate the effect of the sanctions.

Who know where the truth is?



carp