Date: Fri, 2 Apr 1999 17:52:55 -0500 (EST)
From: danceswithcarp <dcombs-AT-bloomington.in.us>
Subject: re: NATO is boxed in...




On Fri, 2 Apr 1999, Brian J. Callahan wrote:

> Okay, Dr. Karpissinger, realpolitik it is.  If NATO "wins" and effectively 
> controls a small chunk of the Balkans, every party to ethnic conflicts in the 
> region will inevitably line up on a pro- or anti- NATO side, with Russia and 
> China helping the antis.  

Russia would, but China?  Wow, brine-oh, you're taking us back to the
1950s when we had twin monoliths for enemies.  China won't go the way of
Russia. China has a Big Stake in the U$ etal getting sucked into a big
committment elsewhere.  China has a Bigger Stake in letting the Rooskies
get sucked into a big committment elsewhere.  China and Russia share Asia
but neither wants to.  Go figure.  Plus, you're arguing that a non-aligned
wirld is the preferred outcome but you're creating an alignment out of the
sino-soviet states.

> They'll see NATO as an expanding empire which 
> therefore threatens their interersts.  Let us consider then the safety of one 
> group not even in the Balkans: the civilian populations of the NATO countries 
> (admittedly, self-interest plays a part in sigling out this group, but this 
> is an exercise in realpolitik, so that seems appropriate).  Are they safer 
> with a Russia and China, two nations with many nuclear weapons that can reach 
> all of the group in question, who fear an expanding empire or not?  

There is a Serious Question about Russia's nuclear capability and their
ability to withstand return fire and they know this This is not the soviet
union; they don't have near the survival resources of the empire; they
only have 140 milion people and a lot of unplowable tundra.  Russia and
China both can make money selling weapons to anti-NATO forces.  The tug of
the money will win.

> I'd say 
> they (we) would be much safer without NATO than with an expanding NATO.  

NATO is expanding without Kosavar.  They just picked up three new players
and they're getting ready for three more.  Nobody is panicking in Russia
or China over this.  Adding a vacant piece of land called Kosavar doesn't
even compare to adding eastern europe to NATO.

> Expansion and war also help to divert the population from keeping an eye on 
> their most immediate enemies, State and Capital.  

So does Prime time TV.  I know it hirts your wob heart to hear it, but few
people are ever going to recognize the state and capital as their enemy as
long as hip-hop and eMpTyVee are occupying their minds.  

Extreme Skateboarding does not a revolution make.

> Hey, there's a war on, ya 
> know...          

Yup.  I'm fighting off the effects of those Beta Blockers.


carp