Date: Fri, 31 May 2002 14:18:45 -0500 (EST)
Subject: Re: hey Ali


On Fri, 31 May 2002, Ali Kazmi wrote:

> Well, out of the total of 80-100 heroshima sized
> warheads possessed by both sides,

FAS.org has it at 20 for Pakistan and 50 for India, but last night on the
news the US DoD was saying 100-150 for India and 40-50 for Pakistan.  Also
the guy used the term "thermonuclear" for a 50kt Indian bomb.   I've never
heard that before and I teach a 2 week section on nuclear weapons in my
high school geography class and feel fairly up-to-date.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/bomb/sfeature/mapablast.html

You can drop a 1mt weapon on the address of your choosing and see the
results.  Yeah, I know, a 1mt is a lot bigger than a 20kt, but not so much
in damage-difference as you'd think.  Essentially the damage rings are
similar to the Richter scale in a way, a doubling in size of the blast
increases the damage ring by about 1/10.

> there should be a
> 50% failure rate.

Paki yes, India maybe.  India has had the bomb since the mid-60s and even
though they didn't do any extensive testing they've had more than enough
time to wirk (WIRK?) out the detonator bugs.


> Most of them are airplane delivery
> configured not missile, so some will be shot down
> before delivering their payloads, so a total of 10 -
> 20 warheads. most will be ground bursts, as military
> comm nets are mostly fibre, and hey, ground bursts are
> more spectacular.

I've got a video called "Trinity and Beyond: The Atomic Bomb Movie."  It
has a space-burst over Hawaii.  Damned pretty sight.


> However, timing is also important.
> Summer months are Monsoon season.

This may be the saving grace.  India's armor isn't air-conditioned, so
those 120 degree temps will mostly disable armor in the day.  India isn't
on full mobilization and deployment yet.  The good war season won't be
until after the passing of the summer.


> So most of the
> fallout should wash out over the subcontinent,
> prevailing winds are from the west and south, so you
> would have the plumes moving over india and into china
> and maybe russia. the stuff that punches up to the
> stratosphere and the jet streams will move around the
> world, but might not have to scrap the whole world
> crop.

I wouldn't wirry too much about the fallout outside of the sub-continent.
The US and USSR set off around 500 of the suckers above ground and the US
only recently said only 15k people died over the course of things.   The
fallout from a 1000 bombs would be a global catastrophe.  50 won't be.

> Karachi and Bombay are costal cities and if you get
> sea bursts, then the stuff will really move around.
> might have to give up seafood.

Shallow bursts like Bikini will be awesome.  20kt at sea level is a Big
Boom.   I've got a picture of a 20 kt at 2,000 ft deep.  Just a bubble on
the surface.  One shot is of a submerged submarine's interior  caught in
the blast.  Now you see it and now you don't.

What was the allusion Oppenheimer made?  About Vishnu the Destroyer?  "I
am become death, destroyer of worlds."  It's from the Bhagavad Gita.

Then there's Einstein:



Nor do I take into account a danger of starting a chain reaction of a
scope great enough to destroy part or all of the
planet. But it is not necessary to imagine the earth being destroyed like
a nova by a stellar explosion to understand vividly
the growing scope of atomic war and to recognize that unless another war
is it is likely to ring destruction on a scale never
before held possible, and even now hardly conceived, and that little
civilization would survive it.
      - Albert Einstein

The release of atom power has changed everything except our way of
thinking . . . the solution to this problem lies in the
heart of mankind. If only I had known, I should have become a watchmaker.
      - Albert Einstein

The release of atomic energy has not created a new problem. It has merely
made more urgent the necessity of solving an existing one.
      - Albert Einstein


cheers,

carpo

ps:  ali?  Have you taken up strong dirnk yet?  It might be a good time.