Subject: Fw: [v-nv-mobilize] Big Trouble Ahead
Date: Sun, 19 May 2002 15:48:16 +0100
This is a multi-part message in MIME format.
For comments..........
H
----- Original Message -----
From: PeterCadogan-AT-aol.com
To: v-nv-mobilize-AT-yahoogroups.com
Sent: Sunday, May 19, 2002 1:11 PM
Subject: [v-nv-mobilize] Big Trouble Ahead
All,
In less than twelve months time, on present showing, we shall face a war
crisis as significant as WW2. It will be sparked by President Bush and his
hawks when they launch 250,000 American troops (and 25,000 Brits?) against
Iraq to enforce a 'regime change'.
The build-up, with the creation of new bases, is proceding apace in Romania,
Bulgaria , Turkey, Kuwait and especially in Qatar (to replace the present
base in Saudi Arabia denied to the US over Aghanistan and Iraq).
Of course the typical British response is: "Don't panic, it may never
happen!" (Shades of Neville Chamberlain!) It may be true. Will the US be
crazy enough to take on the world with only Blair as an ally? We don't know
for sure, but the answer appears to be - Yes!
Such a war will ignite the huge Muslim world, set Europe at odds with itself
and even promote a revolution in the US. There was a dummy run for that over
Vietnam - it was a close thing.
While we work and hope for the best, it would be most unwise not to prepare
for the
worst. This is the Big Trouble Ahead. We know where and when it will begin
(if it does begin), but we have no idea where and when it will end. The
future of civilisation, no less, will be in the balance. We need to be
prepared for anything. Since the proposed attack is scheduled to take place
next Spring, we have just less than twelve months in hand. So what do we do?
How best to make a start? But first an essential digression. First know thine
enemy - that shapes the response.
INSIDE AMERICA
I am on three US networks and have just received the full text of an article
in THE WASHINGTON POST by Dana Milbank called 'Who is Pulling the Foreign
Policy Strings?'
It dismisses the popular media picture of hawks led by Defence Secretary
Rumsfeld versus doves led by Secretary of State Colin Powell It is much
deeper and more grim than that. I summarise...
The Hawks are led by Richard Perle 'now intellectual guru of the hard-line
neoconservative movemewnt in foreign policy'. "Of course I'm pulling all the
strings." Perle said yesterday with a laugh. "I've been doing this for
years!"
In the Perle camp are Vice President Cheney and his Deputies, Lewis Libby and
Eric Edelman, who talk directly to Condoleezza Rice at the National Security
Council. In that same NSC "they have a sympathetic audience in Elliott
Abrams, Robert Joseph, Wayne Downing and Zalmay Khalilzad."
With Perle also are Rumsfeld's Deputy Paul Wolfowitz; the Undersecretary for
Policy, Douglas Feith; and John Bolton who is an Undersecretary in Powell's
Department. It was Bolton who announced the US rejection of the
International Crimninal Court.
The Brent Scowcroft camp, critical of the hard-liners, is 'less deep'. It
includes Richard Haass, Powell's Policy Planning Director; Powell's Deputy,
Richard Armitage; Marc Grossman, Number 3 at the Dept of State. The CIA
Director George J Tenet is alongside as is the US Ambasssador to the UN, John
D Negroponte; plus two Middle East specialists, Anthony C.Zinni and Bill
Burns.
The rather ambiguous figure is George Bush Senior! Dubbya, apparently,
doesn't talk foreign policy with him or with his father's friend James Baker
III. But GB Senior is known to get on well with the Crown Prince of Saudi
Arabia and that worries the Perleites.
Also the Crown Prince a few days ago had a five hour session with Dubbya and
spelt things out in great detail. They got on well. So you never know...
The biggest hope we have of avoiding a catastrophic war lies, at the moment,
in division at the top. The Perle-Scowcrofts compete fiercely for the eye
and ear of the President and his closest associate over policy - Condi Rice.
At the moment the hawks clearly have the edge, but there is no gainsaying
tomorrow. Also there has been an important change in the last few days led by
Rather at CBS - American journalists intimidated by the Perle camp since
September 11th are beginning to find their voices again, after months of
ideological intimidation in the name of the flag. The best of signs!
SO - WHAT WITH US?
What we need forthwith is a first class all-London communications system - by
E-mail.
Yesterday, wearing my other hat as Chairman of the London Alliance for Local
Democracy, I took advice from a computer boffin and learnt a few things.
That will continue. What we need is a wholly open system of communications
not controlled or circumscribed in any way by party or sectarian infuence.
That should not be too difficult. Ideas appreciated!
Peter Cadogan
Tel: 020 7328 3709
Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
ADVERTISEMENT
This list is unmoderated, which means self-moderated. Please be respectful, even in passionate disagreement. We do want the passion but prefer not to have mean spirited attitudes. And, please, edit out excess passages of messages received before adding and sending your reply. Thank you.
Polls: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/v-nv-mobilize/polls
List website: http://www.yahoogroups.com/group/v-nv-mobilize
Subscribe: v-nv-mobilize-subscribe-AT-yahoogroups.com
Unsubscribe: v-nv-mobilize-unsubscribe-AT-yahoogroups.com
List owner: v-nv-mobilize-owner-AT-yahoogroups.com
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.