Date: Mon, 14 Oct 2002 21:50:41 -0500
From: danceswithcarp <dcombs-AT-bloomington.in.us>
Subject: Re: and now back to the war


At 04:24 PM 10/12/2002 +0100, Heather Glaisyer wrote:
>Any comments on this one ?-is Unka Bart still with us? Carp?


There are a goodly number of "officials" who question the possibility of 
war with Iraq, including unofficial me.  It's really hard to tell what's up 
in Washington though as all of the Agents Of The Secret Apparatus are 
bickering over turf and trying to get one up on the other with the threat 
of "Homeland Security" consolidation in the background--someone will lose 
some perks before it's all over, and woe to the career that suffers that 
pain.

The 9-11 attacks made what were petty squabbles between security agencies 
blossom into full-scale slugfests, and it's really hard to tell which way 
the wind is blowing.  What should be clear though is the U$ already 
believes it has won the war and is now trying to establish what we will do 
in the peace.  The complete and absolute ingnorance of the effects of "The 
Fog Of War" bothers a great many people both within and outside of The 
Apparatus.  The last time out 5-10k KIA was the prediction, we got 
150.   Surely no one thinks that is going to happen again.  Surely.

Surely?

Somehow, the Bush2 idea that this will be a replay of Bush1's war seems to 
resonate in Washington but doesn't ding many bells even here, in republican 
Indy-by-gawd-anna.   As a matter of point, few I know of any political 
party think there should be a war.   There was a great ad today in the NY 
Times from about 100 corporate executives calling on Bush2, Rummy and the 
lackey Cheney to quit trying to sell the war.

Of course this all might change the instant an american boy is fired upon, 
but there is a very strong anti-war sentiment right now.  This all existed 
in '90-'91 too, until the Bush1's administration played the fictional 
"develop-a-nuclear-weapon-in-six-months" card and the ratings for war 
started to soar.
Well, Bush2 *has* already played the nuke card and the results were 
so-so,.  Maybe a little poll spike, but not much.

For the life of me I can't figure out where the pollsters are getting the 
numbers that 60% of the public favor a war.  Nor can I figure why so many 
pols in Washington rolled over to the war juggernaut.  Not even the most 
cynical me can rationalize that.


carp