Date: Tue, 02 Nov 2004 00:13:38 +0000
Subject: Re: electoral vote




Roger wrote

 > anyone want to try and predict the eventual electoral vote?

Not the exact vote, no, but I am predicting Kerry will win
by a significant margin. It looks like there is going to be
a substantial increase in the numbers of folk voting, and
that is usually bad for the incumbent. It certainly was for
the pro-Bush government in Spain. The opinion polls got
that one wrong, they underestimated the opposition support
because they are set up to ask folk who  _usually_ vote
how they intend to vote, not folk who usually don't. Even
a substantial win for Kerry is likely to be disputed by armies
of lawyers saying you can't count  _that_  vote, he didn't
register properly, and you can't count  _that_  vote, he was
convicted of spitting on the sidewalk fifteen years ago. Then
when it becomes clear that Bush really has lost there will
be rumours of a coup d'etat. Or maybe there won't be rumours,
just a coup d'etat. On the other hand, maybe it will all go
smoothly and there will be a smooth "handover" of power.

Scott wrote

 > I voted for Clinton in '92 and felt dirty about it for the next 8 years.

I didn't vote for Tony Blair, but I can remember being glad that
the Labour Party had defeated the Tories. Now, even the Tory Party
under Michael Howard is beginning to look good compared to Blair.

Dave C