Subject: AUT: China and Indonesia
Date: Tue, 5 Oct 1999 21:37:23 +0100


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Russia and certainly China might have a vested interest in the disintegration of Indonesia. Certainly China might have an interest in somewhat assisting in Indonesian instability (and being seen to be assisting) as a means of increasing its leverage with regard to Washington concerning commercial relations as well as in relation to the issue of Taiwan etc.

Perhaps the instability generated by the break up of Indonesia might not suit China's especially as China itself could conceivably experience a somewhat similar process --Manchuria and Japan. However it might still be interested in mischief making in relation to Indonesia as a means of increasing its leverage.

It may also, despite its tiny participation in the UN force, like to see Australia getting into some difficulties in East Timor through a sustained even if moderate guerrilla war. It would hope to exploit this kind of difficulty for its own national interests.

Warm regards
George Pennefather


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