Date: Wed, 12 Feb 2003 05:30:02 +0000 (GMT)
From: =?iso-8859-1?q?Scott=20Hamilton?= <s_h_hamilton-AT-yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: AUT: Fwd: The Economist on Chavez's victory and plans



Hi Lowe, you wrote:

"All indications seem to show that it is highly
unlikely that Chavez could attempt such a thing and
expect to live another day...the OAS, which has till
this point attempted to maintain moderation despite
U.S. anxiety, would likely be pushed to take extreme
measures at such quick and radical measures by this
already worrysome leader."

I disagree with this analysis, though I'm sure that it
is a popular one in SA, particularly in the Chavez and
Lula governments, which will be trying to hose down
the expectations of their supporters. Saddam's is
probably the least attractive regime in the world, yet
it is proving very difficult for the US to go to war
against Iraq. And in South America Cuba, a country
much closer to the US, has survived four decades since
nationalising its economy and abolishing the law of
the market (admittedly, it has had to trim its sails
since the fall of the USSR). It took the US close to a
decade to get rid of tiny Nicaragua. I don't think it
would be politically possible for the US simply to
invade Venezuela, and I don't think a Contras-style
insurgency could succeed against a Chavez who had
nationalised the economy and closed down the private
sector. I think the real difficulty, in the longer
term, would be the lack of a Soviet union to bankroll
a nationalised bureaucratically planned economy. But
what other option does Chavez have? 





 

===="Revolution is not like cricket, not even one day cricket"

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