From: "Harald Beyer-Arnesen" <haraldba-AT-online.no>
Subject: Re: AUT: Re: Re: Re: Kevin on Iraq
Date: Thu, 3 Apr 2003 16:05:12 +0200



----- Original Message -----
From: "chris wright" <cwright.21stcentury-AT-rcn.com>
To: "aut-op-sy" <aut-op-sy-AT-lists.village.virginia.edu>
Sent: 3. april 2003 07.10
Subject: Re: AUT: Re: Re: Re: Kevin on Iraq


> Hey Harald,
>
> >
> > You do not seem to have gotten my point here, Chris. Nor
> > Griswold's for that, as far I can see. But I let the  later be here.
>
> Maybe, maybe.  I am really trying to grasp all this more carefully, and
> so I am throwing out stuff and enjoying the corrections, as they are
> helpful.
>
> > One of  the claims in Angyal Istvan article, expressed through
> > citing from a piece written by George Monbiot in the
> > Guardian, was:  "The dollars' dominance of world trade,
> > particularly the oil market, is all that permits the US Treasury
> > to sustain the nation's massive deficit, as it can print
> > inflation-free money for global circulation. "
>
> Before I comment, looking back at it, I agree that I would not say that
> the dollar's dominance is 'all' that permits the massive deficit.
> However, I think it is a part of it.

There is a radical difference between it "part of it" and "all".
This also of course has to do with our own credibility in a
non-literal sense.

As to the so-called "foreign debt of Australia"  versus the United
States, let me first say that Australia as Canada has upheld
net foregn debt throughout its history, at the beginning of the
20th century it made up about 80 per cent of the Australian
GDP, and second that Australia is today not only "saddled wth the
same amount of foreign debt" but a proportionally far larger one.
        Otherwise these more updates quotes and sources (one
which also gives a historical statistcal review) should answers
this question.

>From Economic snapshots January 15, 2003 by the The Economic Policy
Institute, Washington DC.
http://www.epinet.org/webfeatures/snapshots/archive/2003/0115/snapshots20030
115.html

"Accordingly, U.S. net foreign debt (equivalent to net international
investment in the U.S.) is expected to reach an all-time high of $2.8
trillion in 2002, or nearly 27% of total U.S. GDP, as shown by the purple
line in the figure above"

"In 1996 when the 'debt truck' was touring Australia, our net foreign debt
level was $194 billion or 39 per cent of GDP. The 'debt truck' has since
disappeared, but Australia's foreign debt has continued  to climb and in
2002 was equal to $330 billion or 46 per cent of GDP. The paper provides
information on Australia's gross and net foreign debt, interest liability on
foreign debt, composition of foreign debt, and the relationship between
foreign borrowings and other capital inflows."

From:
Research Paper no. 3 2002-03
Australia's Foreign Debt
Tony Kryger
Statistics Group
3 March 2003
http://www.aph.gov.au/library/pubs/rp/2002-03/03RP03.htm


I of course agree in that such figures need to analysed more
concretely, and I have not got around to more than briefly
glancing though the Tony Kryger paper as yet, but as a minimum
it puts the claim that "The [US] dollars' dominance of world
trade, particularly the oil market, is all that permits the US
Treasury to sustain the nation's massive deficit " in serious
doubt.

As you, I am "really trying to grasp all this more carefully". and
reach a higher level of understanding of this subject matter
than I currently possess.

I also very much agree with you in "that the weight of the dollar vs.
euro should not be overestimated, but seen as part and parcel
of a struggle over accumulation and the terms of accumulation,
ie of exploitation.  Who will be in a better position to draw capital
to them and how..."  On the other hand, the whole question
should probably not be underestimated either. One thing is
certain for instance,  "US" being able to borrow in its own
currency makes "it" as a debtor less exposed to the consequences
of the appreciation and depreciation of the greenback. This
might in fact be the most critical  part.


Harald






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