From: "Jeff Seaman" <scratcher11-AT-hotmail.com>
Subject: HAB: US offensive
Date: Wed, 19 Sep 2001 03:00:21 +0100


Link to the Global Communist Group at:
http://homepage.eircom.net/~beprepared/FIST
--------
The  US led mobilisation is going to create all kinds of political problems that
may lead to increased tensions. The problems are based on the attempts by  US
imperialism to mount what it calls a grand coalition. Clearly this is a pretext
for attempting to reorganise the globe in US capitalism's  own imperialist
interests. The process may lead to serious problems for Russia. Given the
strategic importance of the region in which Afghanistan is located for Russia it
may be now facing all kinds of dangers. These dangers are of a domestic and
geopolitical character. If Washington lands forces in Turkmenistan and other
such states in a plan to occupy and effectively colonise the region as it has
been doing in the Balkans this new development may pose grave geopolitical
dangers for Russia. If US colonialism proves successful this can only create
conditions that may encourage domestic tension for Putin. It will also dent his
political image domestically and even internationally.
Then there are the dangers for Pakistan given that it does not suit its
interests to wage a war on two fronts. India may decide to exploit any
engagement by Pakistan forces on the Afhanistan front. This may lead to
increased tensions in Kashmir and even the further destabilisation of Pakistan
and consequently further problems for  imperialism. This is one of the reasons
why Washington is so adamant that a grand global coalition is formed. By means
of the coalition it hopes to lock as many states, especially key states, as
possible into the increased imperialist aggressiveness. Even China shares a
border with Afghanistan. To a degree this brings China into the equation. It is
afraid that one or more of the other imperialist powers will seek to take
advantage of Washington's new engagements.
Iran shares its borders with Afhanistan. It has not had good relations with the
USA. It is another complicating factor in the situation. It may not be happy to
see its Great Satan sitting beside on the other side of the border.
Many powers, both minor and major, are looking at this new aggressive stance by
Washington in the context as to how they can derive benefits from it or reduce t
he disadvantages. They are weighing up the balance of potential advantages and
disadvantages. Politically, in itself, the recent terrorist atrocity means
nothing to them. Some states may formally and even actively in some degree
co-operate with Washington  while covertly supporting elements resisting the new
strategy if their position is such that they can make gains by such actions.
Some states may not be to opposed to Washington committing ground troops to the
region in the hope that it all goes badly wrong for Bush. They consequently hope
to gain advantages from Washington's difficulties. There is danger that the US
may be suffer a fate similar, and even worse, to that of the Russians in the
Afghanistan area.

Domestically this new strategy is going to entail the mounting of an attack on
civil rights. and an attack on the conditions of work  of the working class in
the interests of capital. This may provide the conditions for the emergence of a
more radicalised working class and the emergence of a significant communist
movement. It is an ambitious strategy on various fronts. Perhaps US imperialism
is overstretching itself this time. Its reasons for such increased
aggressiveness may be based on desperation or confidence. Not having access to
the statistics etc communists cannot sure as to how bad the economic situation
is fore US capital. Prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union only KGB had
access to the facts that provided evidence as to how bad things were for the
Soviet Union. It was these facts that explain why Soviet Stalinism was prepared
to launch its ambitious strategy of glasnost and perestroika.
There are other powers that may be seriously and immdediately affected by
developments as they unfold --Libya, Iraq etc. Then in the Muslim world where
there is much instability conditions can tip in such a way as to spell the end
of these regimes and their replacement by muslim fundmentalist regimes.
Only events will  tell. However it is important that communists attempt to
outline the likely tendencies in order the better to understand and organise.

However it is difficult to make any specific analysis given that it is not clear
what Washington's specific plans concerning its future aggressive strategy. What
is clear, however, is that this mobilisation has nothing to do with the
terrorist atrocity that recently occurred in the US. It is merely an accuse for
imperialist mobilisation. What developments sharply highlight is the extent of
US imperialist power and its inherently oppressive and aggressive nature. The
response to the atrocity is extraordinary. If this atrocity happened in some
part of Africa there is little chance of it provoking anything like this
response by Washington --unless, perhaps, of course it chose to make an issue of
it.

Please excuse the very hasty character of this posting. Fast moving events dont
always allow one to dot the i's and cross the t's.

Karl Carlile (Global Communist Group)

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at http://homepage.eircom.net/~kampf/



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