Date: Sat, 12 Apr 2003 20:33:38 +0100
From: Jan Straathof <janstr-AT-chan.nl>
Subject: Re: new world order (hope and machination)


Hi Malcolm, you wrote:

>including a major split with the EU under French and German leadership

Malcolm, i think this so-called "major split" is becoming a bit
exaggerated. First of all, and maybe not so visible for outsiders,
there is the fact that the EU has been split for years over a wide
range of various issues, i.e. economic harmonization, legislation,
(im)migration etc. This split in fractions was and still is part of the
reality of the european integration process and is widely viewed as
a healthy sign of internal democratic struggles.

Secondly, it's a little (dirty) secret that strategists at the EU HQ in
Brussels actually conceive the current EU split over the Iraqi issue
as a blessing in disguise. Why ? There are various reason for this:
(i) the EU really doesn't want nor can alienate itself to much from
the US; (ii) this split gives the EU a lot of room for diplomatical
manoeuvring, while for instance the Big Three are conferencing in
St.Petersburg, other members of the EU community are directly or
indirectly politically or militarily involved with the US war in Iraq
(and thus the EU is gambling on more than one table); (iii) and this
reason is the most important one, namely, that the EU is not ready
to play a full-blown role on the world political scene, because [a]
it lacks an european army, nor has it any unified military strategy,
[b] it has no middle/long range foreign policy, [c] the EU has no
strong global currency (yet), and [d] there exist no such thing as an
unified european media- and information (infra)structure, although
the current symmetric public opinion (anti-war protests) throughout
the EU might indicate that the audience is there and that the time is
ripe for new initiatives.

But what about the future of the EU split. I agree with Michael that
we don't have to expect a unified foreign policy in the foreseeable
future. Processes of political integration and harmonization go very
slow (is this a lesson for the coalition in the reshaping of Iraq), but
for me it becomes quite clear that, because of the agressive behaviour
of the current US administration, the EU is (largely unwillingly)
forced to speed up its enlargement and integration programmes and
have to accept the leading role of the French and the Germans the
coming years. Every power vacuum will immediately be filled up:
this is a Nietzschean lesson !

yours,
Jan




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