Date: Sun, 14 Mar 2004 16:24:12 +0000
From: "steve.devos-AT-krokodile.co.uk" <steve.devos-AT-krokodile.co.uk>
Subject: Re: Went to a Tarik Ali talk...


eric

The way in which Iraq is presented in Europe, has tended to confrim 
Tariq's understanding that a notion of Iraqness can be said to exist.  
The issue of whether that national sovereignty can survive the  current 
intervention of the coalition and the UN is perhaps the question. Any 
attempt to construct a local nationalism not dependent on religious 
similarity seems to be a natural target in the middle east. But anyway 
the alternative to the Iraqi state existing will probably be the 
inter-religious violence familiar from the Lebanon. In other words the 
familiar result of colonial activity....

given the escalating levels of terrorist violence in europe and 
elsewhere it will be interesting to see how long it takes for the 
supporters of the war against terrorism to admit that they were wrong

steve

Eric wrote:

>Glen,
>
>Good to hear from you again and thanks for this interesting update.  I
>wonder though, if the strength of the national imaginary will really be
>strong enough to supervene over ethnic differences, given that modern
>Iraq is something of a European creation to begin with and resentment
>over the oppression of the Kurds and Shiites under the Sunni led
>administration of Saddam must still be very strong.  My sense is that
>the Shiites who are in the majority sense this is their great
>opportunity and will continue to make the most of it.  
>
>The cowardice of the Bush administration, which prematurely imposed a
>highly arbitrary June 30th exit deadline, merely in order to provide
>damage control for its upcoming 'shock and awe' presidential campaign
>will also exasperate this current situation even more and fan the flames
>of dissension.  
>
>My prediction is that the outcome of all this will either be civil war
>or a UN imposed enclave.
>
>It will also be interesting to see if this leads to demands for a super
>Kurdish state, creating renewed tensions within Turkey and Pakistan,
>even though politically this remains an absolute impossibility. Turkey
>will perceive this as being too great a threat to its own sovereignity
>to ever allow it to occur.
>
>eric  
>
>
>
>  
>