Date: Fri, 11 Apr 1997 13:48:13 -0400 (EDT)
From: louisgodena-AT-ids.net (Louis R Godena)
Subject: M-I: Re: A Surfeit of humanity



The long awaited arrival in Beijing of the dreaded "Shanghai clique" is now
apparently coming to pass.   Nicknamed after the former resident city of Mr
Jiang Zemin,  now first among equals in China's leadership following the
death of Deng Xiaoping,  this group consists in the main of an inner circle
of cronies from Jiang's days as mayor and local party boss.    The meteoric
rise to prominence of the clique mirrors the trajectory of Jiang's own
career which culminated in his being named general secretary of the party
during the Tiananmen Square riots at a time when Jiang was not even a member
of the standing committee of the politburo.

Jiang has always preferred to be known as a "consensus politician" --
meaning,  perhaps,  that he wants to be all things to all people.    Others
complain that he is without firm beliefs or fresh ideas.    Jiang is
sometimes referred to as leader of the "wind faction",  meaning his
attitudes drift in whatever direction seems most politically appropriate.
Now that Deng's patronage -- the real springboard to power for Jiang -- is
in the past,  some are recalling the elevation of the hapless Hua Guofeng to
party leadership when Mao died in 1976.    Mr Hua did not survive very long
after his patron's death,  being shown the door by the rising clique around
Deng Xiaoping, and a similar fate could await Jiang himself.

This may account in part for Jiang assiduous courtship of the PLA,  which
serves as an important guarantor of political authority.    Mr Jiang has
been working hard on his military ties -- he already has a satisfactory
"class background",  his father (an early member of the Party) having been
murdered by the Nationalists in the 1930s -- and is said to have secured the
loyalty of senior officers,  many of whom he promoted.    But a real sign of
Jiang's tenuous position with hardliners in the Party leadership may also
found in the recent prominence of many of the more conservative members of
the "Shanghai clique".

Particularly worrying for Jiang is the rising unemployment and
*under*employment in the enterprise zones around large cities like Shanghai.
While this year's Chinese Statistical Yearbook shows official unemployment
at an unremarkable 1 per cent across the country,  Shanghai's formal
unemployment rate is nearly three times higher.   Unofficial employment,
widespread *under*employment,  an influx of unskilled migrants and a
swelling number of pensioners are all turning Shanghai  --  a city in the
forefront of China's conversion to the "planned market" -- into a showcase
of the miseries of the market economy. 

Workers laid off by state-owned enterprises (SOEs)and kept on a subsistence
wage by their old employers are put in a different category from the
unemployed,  who have no ties to any work unit.    Their numbers rose 20 per
cent last year to 270,000 (out of a labor force of more than 8 million in a
city with 13 million registered inhabitants). But privately many municipal
party officials fear the problem is several times bigger.    The World Bank
itself estimates that redundant workers account for more than 10 per cent of
the work force at most SOEs,  and most western economists expect that number
to grow by an astonishing 20 - 30% in 1997-98.

The growing employment problem in urban China -- and the passive response to
it of party "reformers"  -- has brought to the fore a number of "hardliners"
centered around the "Shanghai clique".   Many have ties to Jiang dating back
to when he worked at the Stalin automobile plant in Moscow in the 1950s,
and have viewed many of Deng's market "reforms" askance.    Most,  like Wei
Xiaoling,  reject the reformers solutions of re-employment programs for
suspended workers,  as well as retraining schemes.      Too,  they feel that
a long-term decline in the registered population of cities like Shanghai
(predicted by some reformers to provide some relief after the year 2010) is
unlikely.    While the *China Business Daily*,  the official party
newspaper,  says Shanghai's unemployment can be kept under 3 per cent as
long as the city maintains economic growth of at least 11 per cent, few see
this as a credible prospect.     

Wei,  who is increasingly seen as the dominating power in policymaking
bodies around employment and social welfare is said to heavily favor the
re-centralization of the economy,  especially in the areas of heavy
industry.    Increasing unemployment,  together with issues such as
increased ethnic unrest in western China and the growing anti-Chinese
propaganda from the American politicians and the media,  may serve to move
off the fence where he has sat throughout most of his career and decidedly
to the Left.    Mayor Xu Kuangdi,  a local mentor to many in the "Shanghai
clique" and a close advisor to Jiang,  is said to favor many of the controls
and institutions of the old central economy,  both to bolster industry and
muster support for the Party among the exploding population of urban poor
increasingly visible in China's "capitalist" city.

Louis Godena 



     --- from list marxism-international-AT-lists.village.virginia.edu ---