Date: Fri, 30 May 1997 23:27:13 -0400 (EDT)
From: louisgodena-AT-ids.net (Louis R Godena)
Subject: M-I: China's GDP likely to be tops in 2020



China's gross domestic product will likely be the largest in the world by
the year 2020 measured by purchasing parity, according to the Organization
for Economic Cooperation and Development.  It will account for about 20% of
global GDP, above the US at 11% and Japan at 5%, according to OECD officials.

Average annual GDP growth for China, India and other non-member countries is
estimated at 6.3% from 1995 through 2020, surpassing the average 2.8%
forecast for the current 29 OECD member nations over the same period, the
report said.

The combined GDP of *nonmenber* nations will make up more than 60% of global
GDP in 2020, compared with about 40% in 1995.  The organization calculated
GDP growth on the premise that both developed and developing countries will
continue to "reform" trade and financial markets.  This despite a growing
consensus among nonmember economists that judicious central planning as well
as market incentives have fueled the exponential growth of the Asian economies.

The Big Five economies early in the next century will be China, India,
Indonesia, Brazil, and Russia, with their combined share of world GDP
expected to hit 37% in 2020.  [*The Nikkei Weekly*  (May 26, 1997);
*Business News Asia* (May 29, 1997)]

Louis Godena



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