File spoon-archives/marxism-international.archive/marxism-international_1997/marxism-international.9706, message 348


Date: Fri, 20 Jun 1997 03:27:56 +0100
From: Joćo Paulo Monteiro <jpmonteiro-AT-mail.telepac.pt>
Subject: Re: M-I: Re: Towards a theory of transition


Karl Carlile wrote:
> 
> JOA PAULO:Is a confrontation avoidable? Well, yes - if the
> bourgeoisie agrees toive up power and hand down its productive
> assets. Is this to be expected? I think not. I think the
> bourgeoisie's core will be polarized over a line of resistence and
> radicalization. These lines will have to be assaulted and the basis
> for proletarian power be established on totally new forms. Either
> way, the transfer of power will be anything but smooth. The agony
> pains of capitalism are certain to create a major social and
> political crisis worldwide. And the word of wisdom here is: Se vis
> pacem para bellum (I hope my latin is better than my english).
> 
> KARL: You seem to be saying that as the situation polarises the
> working masses grow increasingly radical eventually tranforming
> themselves into a revolutionary socialist movement. Am I correct?
> 

Well, I think there has always been a revolutionary socialist movement
among the laboring masses, if at times in a dormant or latent state.
Class struggle has always been there and there has always been a faction
of the class willing to take it to the point of rupture. That's what has
kept marxism alive all these years. Now, there are special historical
situations when this can assume a mass character of generalized
insurrectional struggle. And this can happen very sudden and
unexpectadly. Class struggle can develop quite "chaotic" patterns.

But I would expect one of two possible scenarios: one is the classical
"catastrophist" hypothesis I have mainly considered on this thread. The
development of the inner contradictions of capitalism (whose symptom is
the downfall of the rates of profit) leads to a generalized crisis and a
totally dysfunctional economy. The system cannot find a way out. A
violent social polarization occurs and only the workers' seizure of
power can disentangle the deadlock.

Another scenario is that capitalism actually finds a way out of the
present crisis (one can never know for sure how many breaths the beast
has left). Things a running smoothly indeed but workers' confidence
emboldens them. They take the inniciative and, from conquest to
conquest, finally kick the bosses out and take control. I think the
likelihhod of this scenario increases as technical sophistication starts
to empower the workers on the shopfloor.

But then things can happen in an infinite number of hybrid and basically
umpredictable ways. The important thing right now is to sharpen and
strenghten our theoretical, programatic and organizational tools. These
are decisive material forces aswell.


Joćo Paulo Monteiro



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