Date: Wed, 25 Jun 1997 22:52:46 GMT
From: Chris Burford <cburford-AT-gn.apc.org>
Subject: M-I: Decommissioning


Blair's new initiative on Ireland has received a cautious
welcome from Gerry Adams. 

After making a loud speech a few weeks ago emphasising in 
Northern Ireland the certainty that the population wishes to 
stay British, and proclaiming that the Republicans may fail 
to get on the negotiating train, Blair has shifted the 
British government position significantly towards that of the 
Irish. He has also done it while keeping to the "bipartisan
convention" that the opposition will support government policy 
on Ireland, so the new William Hague gave a speech in support. 
And the official Unionists were not totally hostile.

The key issue is about arms. The British government has 
dropped its statements about the IRA giving up arms prior to 
negotiations. The IRA's position is that is would only 
discuss giving up arms after negotiations on matters of 
political substance.

The new Brit government position, accepts aspects of the Mitchell
proposals, of Senator George Mitchell, for parallel decommisioning.

(Mitchell recommended "an approach under which 
some decommissioning would take place during the negotiations")

An Independent Commission would be set up to make proposals for 
decommissioning and monitor their implementation, 

There would be another subcommittee of the parent body concerned with
with other confidence-building measures.

This is all about conflict management.
 
While few marxists would doubt the revolutionary history of 
Irish Republicanism whether the immediate aims of the Republican
Movement could be called revolutionary, or fit into a wider
revolutionary strategy is not clear. 

The Republicans in some ways have through their spokespeople been 
putting the pressure on the British government by frequent 
references to the South African experience, and Mandela. 
Martin McGuiness, was recently emphasing that he had just
come back from a conflict management seminar in South Africa
also attended by Orange representatives.

Presumably the Republicans want to delay as long as possible
giving up arms, and to maximise their influence over a 
section of the population. They may also be hoping for a more 
devolved Northern Ireland, which while not united with the South 
could have greater scope for all Ireland economic and political 
processes within the wider framework of the European Union
rather than within the British isles. More analytical
articles in An Phoblacht could be examined to see if they
point in that direction.

Meanwhile the new Labour Minister for Northern Ireland, Mo Mowlam
has emphasised that the possibilities of reducing violence 
during the marching season in places like Drumcree, will not 
be enhanced by central decisions, which one side or another
will always consider to be unfair. By contrast the emphasis
is on talks among the local community to see if accommodation 
can be reached. 

So here we see conflict management policies, in which the Republicans 
are participating, stretching from major political and 
economic strategies, down to local group psychology.

Will it work? Probably. But the logic of the conflict 
resolution in South Africa was that the parties must continue
talking even if there are incidents in which killing continues.

Blair is not dependent on the votes on Loyalists, and providing
a loyalist backlash or general strike is not called, he may now
be able to continue talking. Loyalists may kill Catholic lay people, 
to provoke Republicans to kill soldiers or policemen in balance. 

The Republicans look as if they are accepting that is a matter
of time before they give up their arms. Whether they have a 
strategy for winning over or neutralising the protestant working
class is one of the great unresolved questions of the Irish
national liberation struggle. It is a key component in 
whether the present phase of the struggle is fundamentally 
revolutionary in content, if not revolutionary in form.


Chris Burford

London. 

 


     --- from list marxism-international-AT-lists.village.virginia.edu ---