Date: Thu, 14 Aug 1997 11:01:59 -0400
From: Louis Proyect <lnp3-AT-columbia.edu>
Subject: M-I: COSATU threatens split with Mandela and ANC


/** labr.global: 283.0 **/
** Topic: S.A. Cosatu Threatens Split With Mandela & ANC **
** Written  9:49 PM  Aug 11, 1997 by labornews in cdp:labr.global **
From: Institute for Global Communications <labornews-AT-igc.apc.org>
Subject: S.A. Cosatu Threatens Split With Mandela & ANC

Mandela may lose union allies
 S. African federation threatens split from ANC

 Saturday, August 9, 1997
 By Hein Marais
 Reuters

A trade-union federation that is a major supporter of Nelson Mandela's
government has threatened to abandon its alliance with the governing
African National Congress and form a new left-wing political force.

The 1.9-million member Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu)
issued its threat as the ANC prepares for a crucial national
conference in December, when it will elect a successor to Mr. Mandela.

The ANC played down the possibility of a split. "If there are
differences in the alliance . . . it does not mean that there is a
divorce," Labour Minister Tito Mboweni told the Cape Town Press Club.
"The marriage is very much intact."

The ANC, Cosatu and the South African Communist Party entered a formal
alliance to win power in the country's first all-race election in
1994. Since then, the ANC has come under increasing fire from its
partners for adopting moderate economic policies and abandoning its
socialist background.

Cosatu's threat appeared in a report drafted by a special team, the
September Commission, charged with the task of redefining the role of
the trade-union movement.

Yesterday, the federation also tried to play down the report, which
was leaked to the media. The threat "was only one of several possible
scenarios considered by the team," said Philip Dexter, a member of the
September Commission.

"It simply pointed out that, if the economy deteriorates and the
government does nothing to assist workers, then eventually workers
will have to consider a new party as a real option. It's a
hypothetical option."

But deep strains recently have appeared between Cosatu and the ANC,
and they centre on the government's controversial Growth, Economic and
Redistribution (GEAR) strategy, which the September Commission's
report bluntly describes as "right wing."

In June, the Communist Party launched its own attack on GEAR, calling
for a wholesale revision of the strategy on the grounds that it was
not benefiting the majority of South Africans.

Cosatu's efforts to force the ANC back to its roots pose a huge
dilemma for the party's leaders. "On one hand, the ANC is historically
a mass-based liberation organization committed to deep social
transformation," one Johannesburg-based analyst said.

"On the other, its leadership believes that the realities of the
global economy force it into policies like GEAR and to govern more as
a tightly controlled conventional political party. I'm not sure they
can reconcile the two."

Both Cosatu and the Communist Party, most of whose members also belong
to the ANC, believe a choice has to be made. "We're not looking for a
gap in the market so we can hoist the red flag," said Jeremy Cronin,
the Communists' deputy general-secretary. "We're hoping the ANC plays
a more effective role as a liberation organization."

One Cosatu source said: "It's going to be a real tug-of-war, seeing
who can pull the ANC this way or that way."

Launched a year ago, the GEAR plan sketched what some economists are
describing as a "home-grown structural adjustment program," referring
to the austerity measures commonly urged on Third World countries by
the International Monetary Fund. It entails cuts in public spending,
the lifting of all financial controls, trade liberalization,
privatization and exempting some categories of workers from key labour
protection.

The government hopes the plan will encourage greater investment by
local and foreign companies. But Cosatu said the plan fails to address
poverty and inequality by meeting the demands of business at the
expense of social development.

Observers said that, while Cosatu may opt to break ranks with the ANC
after the 1999 elections, it is unlikely to endorse the "new party"
possibility when it stages its national conference in mid-September.

"What Cosatu's really pushing for is a kind of left social-democratic
path where there's growth and strong social development," labour
analyst Eddie Webster said.

Such a course meshes with Communist Party proposals. It wants the
government to abandon GEAR and return to the core values of the
Reconstruction and Development Program (RDP), a plan drafted by Cosatu
and other progressive organizations before the historic 1994
elections. The RDP was later adopted by the ANC, albeit in severely
diluted form. Some critics inside the ANC say GEAR has effectively
sunk the program.

But there are signs that ANC delegates may support a push for change
in GEAR when they meet in December to map out the organization's
future.

One discussion document -- The Character of the ANC, authored by Mr.
Cronin and circulated to members in preparation for the gathering --
defines the organization as "more than a party of mass support, more
than an electoral machine." The ANC is "a movement of mass
participation . . . with a bias . . . toward the black working class
and the rural and urban poor."

Also high on the agenda will be the GEAR strategy that government
ministers are having difficulty defending.

After registering a 3-per-cent growth rate last year, the economy
unexpectedly slumped in the first quarter of 1997, with the gross
domestic product decreasing -0.8 per cent. Most banks are cautiously
forecasting a growth rate of 2 per cent to 2.5 per cent for the year,
but are regularly adjusting their figures downward.

"We are now at the toughest point," said Mario Ramos, director-general
of finance. "We've taken some of the pain but aren't seeing any
glorious numbers, so we're not feeling very good about things -- but
we need to be patient."

Rising manufacturing output and exports, an increase in foreign
investment and rising foreign reserves are offered as evidence that
the economic policy is bearing fruit.

But the Cosatu source countered: "This means nothing if we're not
seeing new employment being created -- and we're not."

According to Central Statistical Services, 71,000 jobs were lost last
year. GEAR had forecast 126,000 new jobs.

** End of text from cdp:labr.global **

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