Date: Wed, 08 Oct 1997 13:40:12 -0400
From: Louis Proyect <lnp3-AT-columbia.edu>
Subject: M-I: Cuba's new economic policy


On December 30, 1990 Cuba and the USSR announced that their trade treaties
would last for one year only, rather than the five year periods of the
past. Prices would be based on hard currency at world market levels, except
for sugar. Even though sugar was still subsidized, the 1991 price would be
$500 per ton rather than $800 per ton. This means that right off the bat
Cuban revenues would be cut nearly in half. Soviet delivery of oil would be
cut from 13 million barrels to 10. Due to the fuel shortages that this
caused, truck and tractor imports were cut to the bare minimum as 1991 began.

Just 10 months later, on October 10, 1991, Castro announced that only 26
percent of Soviet goods had been shipped to Cuba under the terms of the
December 30, 1990 agreement. For example, only 7 percent of lard and 16
percent of vegetable oil had been shipped. Without cooking oil, it is very
difficult to prepare food. It is also difficult to start a cooking oil
industry from scratch. In addition, the USSR stopped shipping household
goods. Cuba received no detergent and less than 5 percent of the promised
soap. There were shortfalls in capital goods as well. Only 16 percent of
fertilizer was received, 2 percent of paper, 1.6 percent of tires, and 1.9
percent of laminated steel.
(These statistics come from Frank T. Fitzgerald's "The Cuban Revolution in
Crisis", Monthly Review Press.)

Things then went from bad to worse. 

After the fall of Gorbachev, what had been a trickle dried up completely as
the faucet was turned off. Gorbachev only tolerated socialist Cuba, while
Yeltsin would prefer to see it destroyed. In 1992, Cuba's total trade with
Soviet bloc partners fell to 7 percent of what it had been in 1989. From
Yeltsin's former Soviet Union he received only 1.8 million tons of oil,
around 13 percent of what it had received in 1989. All this adds up to
collapse of infrastructure, which no amount of study circles devoted to Mao
and Stalin could overcome. My readings of Stalin have given me gas in the
past, but no oil.

What was the response of the Cuban Communist Party to this economic crisis,
which was among the greatest to befall any nation in the twentieth century?

First of all, they have not sold state property to foreign investors, as is
currently taking place in the former Soviet Union. Not a single acre of
Cuban sugar fields have been sold to the imperialists. What Cuba has done
is liberalize its foreign investment codes. The results are well-known. As
I pointed out yesterday, one Canadian firm is doing business in Cuba but
not in the same way that it does business in Mexico or other places. Cuba
workers may not receive high wages, but they are not treated like dirt the
way they are in Indonesia. Or in Vietnam, where Korean managers have them
run in place as a "motivational" tool.

The arrangement with foreign corporations is based on a quid pro quo
arrangement. They get a highly reliable and well-educated work force, while
the Cuban government gets hard currency from the products that are sold on
the open market. This hard currency allows the purchase of cooking oil,
petroleum, steel, medical supplies, guns and other essential items. Without
this arrangement with foreign corporations, Cuba would be destroyed. And
what would our super-Stalinist and Maoist comrades recommend as an
alternative? Should Cuba start up its own steel industry? Since there is no
coal or iron ore in Cuba to speak of, some type of synthetic steel would
have to be produced, made of recycled sugar cane I suppose.

Cuba has also expanded on tourism to get access to foreign currency. This
has been a painful choice because the Cuban revolution was made partly to
liberate it from the status of colonial brothel. It has been successful to
a high degree. Cuba had 243,026 tourists in 1985 and about 480,000 in 1992.
The influx of tourists has brought on prostitution unfortunately. If some
Cubans are driven to desperation because they can not get their hands on
household goods, it is no surprise that they will exchange sex for European
currency that can be used in special shops. The Cuban government can not
prevent this. As long as there is deep poverty, there will be prostitution.
Of course, if everybody in Cuba was reading Mao and Stalin, such social
ills would not occur. If the RED BOOK or FOUNDATIONS OF LENINISM were
best-sellers, a purified population would rather endure hunger than sell
their bodies. This, when you really get down to it, is the "Marxist"
analysis of Cuba's problems coming from the Olaechea, Joseph Green and
their fans.

Now, as it turns out, the Cuban government is already beginning to pull
back from some of the excesses of this emergency period, as today's NY
Times reports:

---------------------------------------------------------------------
October 8, 1997


Cuba's Communists Likely to Hold Line

By LARRY ROHTER

HAVANA -- Revolutionary banners and slogans are posted everywhere, and
some 1,800 delegates have already arrived in the capital. After months of
preparation that have emphasized ideological discipline and "socialist values"
over change, Cuba's Communist Party begins its first congress in six years on
Wednesday. 

The three-day meeting, sandwiched around the 30th anniversary of the death of
the Communist icon Che Guevara, is expected to ratify some changes in the
composition of the 225-member Central Committee and the smaller Politburo,
the subjects of perhaps the most curiosity to ordinary Cubans and to foreign
diplomats and academic specialists. 

But all indications are that the party intends to hold the line on vital
and vexing
political and economic issues. 

"Everything suggests that the leadership does not want this congress to
examine
fundamental policies," said Jorge Dominguez, a professor of government at
Harvard University who is an expert on Cuban politics. "That does not
necessarily mean that nothing of substance will occur, but I am expecting
more of
a cheerleading effort than a serious discussion." 

But at a news conference here Tuesday, Esteban Lazo Cardenas, a member of the
Politburo and party first secretary for the capital, argued otherwise,
saying, "This
is going to be a historic congress, not just because of the moment, but
because of
what is going to be discussed." He added, though, that "there can be no
change of
principles." 

The tone for the congress, which is closed to the foreign press, has been
set by an
eight-page platform, made public this spring, that reaffirms Cuba's commitment
to a one-party state, saying that "the party is in a better position today
than ever
to perfect its role as society's guide." 

It also calls on Cubans to "strengthen our unity and will to resist" the
United
States, which is says seeks to "liquidate the Cuban nation and enslave its
people." 

"In Cuba, there will be no return to capitalism, because the Revolution will
never be vanquished," the document says. "The nation will continue alive and
will continue to be socialist." 

The last party congress was held in October 1991, a time of severe economic
dislocation and ideological uncertainty, coming as it did as the Soviet
Union was
collapsing. Then, more than half of the Central Committee was replaced, with
many pre-revolutionary Communists and former guerrilla combatants giving way
to younger, less proven people. 

Since then, President Fidel Castro has grudgingly allowed the creation of a
parallel dollar-based economy and opened Cuba to foreign investment and
tourism, initiatives that would have been ideologically unacceptable in the
past,
to keep the economy afloat. The congress is expected to ratify those
changes, but
to proceed with great caution regarding further advances. 

The Chinese Communist Party, during its own just-concluded party congress,
moved decisively to reduce the role of the state in the economy and force
government enterprises to stand or fall on their own. At a news conference
here
Monday, Jose Luis Rodriguez, minister of the economy, made clear that no such
reforms were in the offing for Cuba. 

"Ours continues to be a socialist model, in the sense that the state is not
only
responsible for the general welfare, but has a leading role" in the economy,
Rodriguez said. Though there is a limited place for private initiative and
enterprise, he added, Cuba does not view them "an essential element to the
development of our country." 

Like the 770,000 members of the party, ordinary Cubans will also be looking to
the conclave for clues as to who will be leading them in the next five
years. No
changes are expected at the very top, of course: Castro will remain in
charge of
both the party and the government, with his younger brother Raul as his
designated successor. 

But Castro, who is 71, has appeared thinner and pallid in public in recent
months. As a result, popular interest in who might be groomed for future
responsibilities has intensified. 

Many diplomats and academic specialists are predicting an enhanced role for
Vice President Carlos Lage, who is regarded as a pragmatist. 


Copyright 1997 The New York Times Company

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Of course, none of this will matter to the fans of Adolfo Olaechea who have
already made up their mind about the Cuban Communist Party. No new
information will change this. This is because their position on the Cuban
revolution is highly dogmatic, just like the "state capitalist" followers
of Tony Cliff who have said identical things all along. Coming from the
typing fingers of Adam Rose, it was proof to Lou Godena of the
pro-imperialist tilt of the Cliffites. Coming from Adolfo Olaechea, it is
Marxism of the highest order. Yeah, it is pretty high when you get down to
it. High like an LSD trip.

Finally, a word on the Pope's trip. This one really boggles the mind. Cuba
was not a particularly Catholic country even before the revolution. I had a
friend named Gabriel Manfugas who fled Cuba in the mid 60s with his father,
mother and brother. His dad was a sergeant in Batista's army and served
time in prison. Gabriel was a big-time anti-Communist when I first met him,
but shifted to the left through arguments he heard from me and anthropology
professors at CCNY.

One of the things we used to talk about a lot was "santeria", the
Afro-Cuban religion influenced by the Yoruba rituals brought to Cuba during
the time of slavery. Santeria in its pure form was extremely popular in
Cuba. Most Cubans are of African descent and have deep ties to the Yoruba
deities. Even Gabriel's family was in tune to these rituals, despite their
nominal Catholicism. When you looked around his parent's apartment in
Washington Heights, you would see the oddest mixture of religious
artifacts. Pictures of saints with herbs scotch-taped to them. Gabriel once
told me that his mom prayed for him every night, but it wasn't to Jesus
that the prayers were directed. He said that he never pried into her beliefs.

However, these are typical Cuban beliefs. Cuba is not like Poland, where
the Catholic Church has had a vise-like grip historically. Furthermore, the
younger generation of Cubans could be less interested in going to church.
They have consumerist, not Christian, hang-ups. 

The Pope made visits to Poland in order to prop up Solidarity, an
anti-Communist outfit that many Trotskyites supported on the mistaken
assumption that this had anything to do with socialism. There is no
equivalent in Cuba. What the Cuban government has done is opened Cuba up to
a visit from the Pope that is part of the buzzard's trip through the
Western Hemisphere. There is some good that can come of this, since a visit
from the Pope will tend break down Cuba's isolation somewhat, especially
among countries with a Catholic population. Better trade relations and even
some foreign aid might come about.

There is absolutely no other way to interpret this affair.

Louis Proyect




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