File spoon-archives/marxism-international.archive/marxism-international_1997/marxism-international.9710, message 381


Date: Sat, 18 Oct 1997 08:19:19 +0100
From: Chris Burford <cburford-AT-gn.apc.org>
Subject: M-I: UK staying out of Euro


Over the last two years I have periodically reported on developments in
England/Britain about whether the economy will go into the single European
monetary union.

a) because it is economically important

b) to see how much an attempt at a marxist analysis can illuminate the picture


The latest turn is a surprise and important. It reverses my report of 6th
October. In that I referred to the dramatic effect of an article in the
Financial Times of 26th September that the government had decided to go
into the EMU: the pound fell against the DMark and shares shot up. The
stock exchange came to assume that the decision had been made in principle.
Capital had voted.

News broke last night however of an interview with the Chancellor (Finance
Minister) Gordon Brown in the Times today. Although it largely re-iterates
formal government policy, further comment from the Treasury is explicit
that the government has decided that Britain will not enter the EMU in the
lifetime of this parliament.

What has happened? On the surface this is a reversal of the previous news.
But underneath it is possible to see a characterisitic of this New Labour
Government: turning the handling of major political questions into
technical questions. They are emphasising that a) they do not see the
economy of Britain getting in phase with Europe in the next two or three
years b) they do not want the exchanges destabilised by repeated
speculation and open skirmishing as happened under the Conservative
Government under the formula that "we will go in when the time is right".

The underlying class forces however remain IMO as I described them on 6th
October. Indeed the view of big business has consolidated further that
while the timing may be tricky, it is important that the UK goes into the
EMU. Last week Vauxhall let out that its long term investment plans would
be affected by this, and although they hastily softened the message by
saying they would not do anything sudden, the message remains.

The new government position lays open the possibility that the next
election will be fought on a decision to go into EMU. Big business now has
the opportunity to do its market research, prepare public opinion, donate
its funds, and support the return to power of a Labour government at the
next election, with a substantial majority. 

Chris Burford

London.








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