Date: Tue, 10 Mar 1998 14:33:57 +1000
From: Gary MacLennan <g.maclennan-AT-qut.edu.au>
Subject: Re: M-I: Ireland end game?


A.>If some readers might suspect Adams of selling out to imperialism, perhaps
>they can say what different terms he might realistically bargain for, (if
>you accept the principle of a peace process). 
>
>
>Chris Burford
>.


Chris it is good to see you back on the list.  Your last question though
goes right to the heart of the matter. 

What alternative was there to the sell out?  For of course that is what it
is.  Mind you I say that with full recognition of the sacrifices that Adams
has made.

Well you know what I think the alternative was and is.  It is to stop
holding back the mass struggle against the Orange State.  I have been
reliably informed that Adams personally intervened to put a lid on the
reaction to the police battoning the protestors of Drumcree at the time the
Orange Order march was forced through.

Be that as it may the current state of play seems to me to be one where the
Unionists under Trimble want to do a deal with the moderate SDLP.  However
the British and the Irish Governments do not think that the SDLP can sell
this deal to the Catholic population North or South.  Hence their panic
over the expulsion of Sinn Fein from the talks.  This was at first a fairly
routing exercise of British arrogance but then they began to suspect that
Sinn Fein had deliberately arranged their own expulsion so they would not
have to sign up to the deal.

I doubt this myself but it does explain why the suspension was a ridiculous
tend days and also why Sinn Fein are refusing to come back unless they get
an extra meeting.

But let me say in answer to you title - 'Ireland endgame that this is
nothing of the sort.  The fundamental equations are still in place.
Northern Ireland is dominated by an extraordinarily bigoted and racist
little Nation that calls itself the Protestant Nation.  It is impossible to
unite Northern Ireland for then the reason for its existence ceases.  If
you can unite the Protestant and Catholic in the North it can be done just
as easily in the context of a united Ireland.

The other basic element in the situation is that the British continue to
demand a right to interfere in Irish affairs.  While they continue to do
so, there will be no stability.

 You also have to take account of the sheer demographics of it all.  It is
very likely that sometime within the next 20 years that there will be a
Catholic majority in the North.  In the mean time the current size of the
Catholic population makes it all very volatile.


My own guess is that there will be a reaction to Adams and McGuinness but
that this will take the form of a mass movement which they will not be able
to control or subvert.

regards

Gary






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