From: jbm7-AT-tutor.open.ac.uk (Jim Monaghan)
Date: Tue, 14 Apr 1998 18:45:25 +0100
Subject: M-I: Ireland


This is by John Meehan, a webless friend and comrade




The deal itself is very long and detailed, full of bureaucratic
language.  The best short summary can be found in the Irish Times of
Saturday April 11, a concise article by Mark Brennock.  Analysis of the
deal itself in this edition of the paper is, in my opinion,
exceptionally poor and there is loads of publicity guff, friendly and
sycophantic portraits of the participants, etc.

However the articles by the paper's London Correspondent Frank Millar
(a former General Secretary of the Ulster Unionist Party) in the
edition of April 13 1998 are worth reading.  Millar is a Unionist
supporter of the deal, but accurately describes the right wing Unionist
rebellion against UUP leader David Trimble.

Other good source material is yesterday's Sunday Business Post, a
bourgeois newspaper, which carries and editorial denouncing the deal. 
Also articles by Ed Moloney and Anthony McIntyre in yesterday's Sunday
Tribune.  These articles can be found on a US website "rocky
sullivan's".com, .  The Tribune is not on the web.

Sinn Fein stayed in the talks right to the end and were filmed at the
closing session clapping the conclusion of the talks.  Everyone, not
unreasonably, assumed they had signed up to it.  Without doubt that is
the opinion of the general public.  It then transpired that they are
making no public comment for or against the deal.  Their Ard Fheis
(annual conference) takes place next weekend in the RDS, Ballsbridge,
Dublin.  It is not known if they will discuss the deal.  The final
decision is to be made in 2 weeks time by the Party leadership (Ard
Comhairle).  I attended a meeting last Thursday of people and
organisations opposed to the intended changes to Articles 2 and 3 of
the Irish Constitution.  The SF representative, Joan O'Connor,  said
there might be a situation where where some people opposed the 2&3
changes, but supported the deal.  She took a couple of calls during the
meeting, and at 10.00pm said it was almost certain everybody would be
opposed to both.  Her news was that the internal Stormont Parliament
would precede the North/South bodies be several months, and that these
North/South bodies would have very few real powers.  This was presented
as a result of the Fianna Fail Dublin government bowing to Unionist
pressure, aided and abetted by Tony Blair's Westminster delegation. 
Some FF sympathisers in the room got very agitated at this (latest)
example of Dublin government collaboration.  Is it not interesting how
things can change in a matter of 8-12 hours!  

The facts relayed by Joan O'Connor turned out to be correct,  but SF
stayed in side the talks.  One newspaper (the Sunday Independent)
reported that SF stayed in the talks because President Clinton warned
them they could never return if it went out.

In terms of the referendum planned for May 22 North and South of the
border, the options are limited.  In the 26 Counties the changes to the
Irish Consitution (3 in all) as well as support for the deal form a
single question.  So, if you vote no the 2&3 changes, you are also
voting No to the deal.  The single SF TD in the Dail, Caoimhin O
Caolain, has gone on the public record opposing the proposed changes in
Articles 2&3.  In the North people will only be asked to approve of the
Deal - Trimble's UUP, the SDLP, the Alliance Party and the small
parties associated with the loyalist para-militaries (the PUP and UDP)
will be for a Yes - for a NO will be the extreme Unionists (represented
by 8, at least, of the 13 Unionist MP's) - Paisley' DUP, the UKUP of
Robert McCartney, and at least half of Trimble's parliamentary party. 
The Orange Order is organising for No.  Also on record for a no are the
dissident republican factions - the RSF, the IRSP, and the 32 County
Sovereignty Committee.

The last named group is of most interest.  Is main spokespersons and
Bernadette Sands McKevitt (sister of Bobby Sands) and a SF councillor
in Tyrone, Francie Mackey.  Already 9 members of this group have been
expelled from SF, and others who support it within SF have gone
underground, saying they will make themselves known at next Saturday's
Ard Fheis.  We will see what happens then.  A comment - this is a
bureaucratic expulsion, at a time when maximum room for debate and
action is necessary.

So, on the record at present SF only say,effectively, "No Comment". 
There is a massive pressure on them to dot the i's cross the t's and
sign up.  If they do, and as provided for in the deal take their seats
in the Stormont Assembly as ministers in the fledgling internal
government, they have very clearly become a reformist organisation. 
They will have taken the same road as the current Democratic
Left(leader Proinsias De Rossa) did when they were Official SF in the
mid-1970's. 

Looming large against all this if the marching season, and what will
happen on the Garvaghy Road around July 12.  The line of the local
residents' association, spokesperson Breandan Mac Cionnaith, is that
everyone should go there and demonstrate their opposition to the Orange
marchers.  This issue should be strongly highlighted, and it would be
good to carry material from Breandan.  If, like last year, the British
government forces the march through it is very likely the nationalist
parties would be forced to resign (if by then they had taken their
seats) from the Stormont Government and Assembly.  it also follows from
this that just like the Sunningdale Agreement in 1974, the whole
structure may be brought crashing down by the loyalist right.

In the interim I believe it is necessary for people to do whatever they
can, from  a democratic socialist and republican standpoint, to support
a No vote in both referendums, while also making clear they support the
IRA Ceasefire.


   
                



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