Date: Tue, 2 Dec 1997 09:43:34 GMT-1000
Subject: M-NEWS: (Fwd) (Fwd) THE AGE: Hope for peace suddenly skates on thin ic
Subject: THE AGE: Hope for peace suddenly skates on thin ice
> [The Age Melbourne]
> Tuesday 02
> December 1997 Hope for peace suddenly skates on thin ice
>
> The Skate affair may threaten Bouganville
> peace talks, writes Greg Roberts.
>
> AS THE Prime Minister of Papua New
> Guinea, Bill Skate, struggles to hold his
> Government together in the face of
> extraordinary allegations, parties to the
> Bougainville conflict wonder what the
> drama means for the tentative peace
> process that offered hope of finally
> ending the island's nine-year conflict.
>
> In the plush tourist town of Palm Cove,
> north of Cairns, last week, parties to
> the conflict reached agreement on
> protection for a 150-strong international
> force, including 70 Australians, being
> deployed on Bougainville to monitor a
> truce reached at a meeting in October in
> New Zealand.
>
> It was the third time the warring parties
> had met since July, when Mr Skate was
> appointed after national elections. The
> goodwill evident on both sides has been
> due in large measure to Mr Skate's
> commitment to a peaceful resolution.
> After all, he came to power partly
> because of the previous Government's
> botched effort to settle the conflict by
> hiring foreign mercenaries.
>
> The rebel Bougainville Revolutionary Army
> had found in Sam Akoita, the PNG Minister
> for Bougainville Affairs and a fellow
> Bougainvillean, a man they could deal
> with.
>
> Now, at best, Mr Skate will be so
> distracted by the allegations by an
> Australian businessman, Mujo Sefai, that
> Bougainville will not be figuring
> prominently in his priorities.
> Consequently, the risks of the peace
> process crumbling are greater.
>
> There are reasons for optimism, none the
> less. Nobody has died in fighting since
> talks began. Small ceremonies are
> occurring in villages throughout
> Bougainville to celebrate the new mood.
> Key BRA leaders such as Martin Miriori
> and Sam Kauona seem genuine in their
> support of peace.
>
> But there is plenty of tension just below
> the surface. The first hurdle is to
> ensure the truce is kept and the
> monitoring force is not fired on before a
> summit next month in New Zealand, which
> Mr Skate - if he rides out the storm -
> and other leaders will attend.
>
> Renegade PNG troops have shown in the
> past that they will pursue their own
> agenda before obeying orders. A coronial
> inquiry has implicated troops in the
> assassination last year of the moderate
> Bougainville Premier, Mr Theodore
> Miriung. Port Moresby has assured the
> monitors these elements have been removed
> or neutralised. All troops will be
> withdrawn if the January summit agrees to
> a permanent ceasefire.
>
> There is also the chance of hardline BRA
> fighters opposed to the peace process
> breaking the truce. The fact that the
> truce has held fast is an indication that
> the BRA leader, Mr Francis Ona, is
> keeping his soldiers in line.
>
> The present instability in Port Moresby
> could blur military lines of command,
> making it more difficult to keep PNG
> troops in line. It will also make it
> harder for the BRA to judge the
> Government's mood, causing rebel
> hardliners to be more distrustful.
>
> A permanent peace settlement will be
> difficult to reach without Mr Ona's
> imprimatur. He has commanded a fiercely
> loyal following since leading an uprising
> that led to the closure of the Panguna
> copper mine in the late 1980s. Australian
> officials have given the BRA guarantees
> that monitors will not be used in the
> region surrounding the mine, which is
> under Mr Ona's control.
>
> Mr Ona is giving mixed signals about
> peace. Last week he expressed strong
> opposition to Australia's involvement
> because of Canberra's past support for
> the PNG military, and he has repeatedly
> rejected anything short of independence.
> Yet in a hopeful sign, he sent one of his
> leading soldiers to the Cairns talks.
>
> Aware that he risks being marginalised
> because of growing support for peace, Mr
> Ona is biding his time and watching
> developments closely before declaring his
> hand. That could take some guesswork. It
> is impossible now to know what the
> make-up of the Government will be when
> the leaders meet next month, or even if
> Mr Skate will be in office.
>
> PNG officials say that no matter how the
> Government is constituted, PNG (supported
> by Australia) will not back away from its
> position that Bougainville is part of the
> country, and will not accede to the key
> rebel demand for a referendum on
> independence, which almost certainly
> would see a vote overwhelmingly favoring
> succession.
>
> BRA officials are equally adamant that
> war will resume if there is no
> referendum. Neither side has shown much
> interest in a compromise, possibly
> involving some degree of autonomy short
> of independence.
>
> But the fact that the parties have put
> their signatures to three declarations
> after successive rounds of talks is
> encouraging.
>
> The hope is that the drive for peace is
> gathering such momentum that one side or
> the other will feel compelled to back
> down. Mr Skate's troubles will not help
> to maintain that momentum.
>
> Greg Roberts is a staff writer.
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