Date: Thu, 21 Aug 1997 13:20:27 -0400
From: Louis Proyect <lnp3-AT-columbia.edu>
Subject: M-TH: Global Warming


Heartfield's magazine prints nothing but garbage about environmental
issues. For the facts on the global warming question, I refer you to
Rachel's, a fine environmental newsletter that is available on the Internet
at www.monitor.net/rachel. You will take note that automobiles are
responsible for 1/3 of all carbon emissions. Furthermore, you will observe
that Clinton has been resisting measures to curb automobile emissions. So
much for the absolutely batty notion put forward by LM that the
Clinton/Gore White House is "environmentalist".

Louis Proyect

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GLOBAL WARMING, PART 1: EVIDENCE OF GLOBAL WARMING ACCUMULATES

According to SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, a new report from AT&T Bell Laboratories
shows that "not only has global warming arrived, the signal should have
been obvious years ago."[1]  AT&T engineer David J. Thompson --a well-known
researcher in the field of signal processing --used a novel approach to
analyze climate change.  He examined locations around the world with long
historical records, such as central England where climate records date back
344 years, to 1651. Among such records, Thompson examined the dates when
the change of seasons occurred.  In a paper presented in December to the
American Geophysical Union (and not yet fully published), Thompson reports
that the timing of the seasons changed slowly --about one day per century
--until 1940; since 1940, a "pronounced anomaly in the timing of the
seasons has appeared in Northern Hemisphere records," says SCIENTIFIC
AMERICAN.

Thompson's novel approach allowed him to "sidestep completely the nasty
problem of compiling an accurate global average temperature from limited
historical records," says SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN. Jeffrey J. Park of Yale
University says, "The important result of [Thompson's] paper is that the
match between this timing shift [in the change of seasons] and the CO2
increase [in Earth's atmosphere] is very good, UNLIKE the match (or lack of
it) between CO2 and the global temperature increase in the last century.
The seasonal shift since 1940 appears to be an anthropogenic
[human-created] signal," Park says.[2]

CO2 is carbon dioxide, a gas that is increasing steadily in Earth's
atmosphere, trapping the sun's energy, and thus --sooner or later --heating
the planet.  CO2 is released by the burning of fossil fuels --oil, natural
gas, and coal.  The chief scientific debate over global warming is not
WHETHER it will happen, but WHEN its effects will become undeniably
obvious.  The scientific problem is one of detecting the signal (compelling
evidence of greenhouse warming) among all the noise (the natural
fluctuations of weather and climate, including temperature).

In 1990, in 1992, and again in 1994 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) --made up of 140 scientists from 80 countries --issued
reports published by the World Meteorological Organization and the United
Nations stating their consensus belief that the CO2 buildup in Earth's
atmosphere will lead to an average global temperature increase of between
2.7 and 8.1 degrees Fahrenheit during the next century.  In 1994, the IPCC
reaffirmed its conclusions of 5 years earlier.[3] John Houghton, a British
climate researcher who co-chaired the scientific working group that
produced the IPCC's 1994 report said, "It is interesting that in this very
uncertain area, over a period of 5 years, the essential story remains the
same. There's been no evidence that's come to light to destroy those basic
findings."

In the U.S., the National Academy of Sciences said in 1990, "The future of
the earth's climate and, perhaps, its inhabitants, depends on how much
concentrations of carbon dioxide [CO2] and other trace gases are likely to
rise."[4,pg.33]  CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere have increased about
25% since the 18th century, from 280 to 350 ppm [parts per million], and
are steadily climbing.[4,pgs.33,35]  The Academy said in 1990 that the
"greenhouse effect" --whereby the CO2 in Earth's atmosphere acts like the
glass covering a greenhouse, trapping heat energy to produce a warming
effect--"explains why gases produced by human activity will probably cause
the earth's average temperature to increase within the lifetimes of most
people living today."[4,pg.63]

Even earlier, in 1989, the editors of SCIENCE magazine had concluded that
global warming is the most serious environmental problem that humans face.
SCIENCE is the official (and profoundly conservative) voice of the American
Association for the Advancement of Science.  "As serious as the problems of
acid rain, toxic waste, and depletion of the ozone layer are, the
greenhouse effect looms over all of them because it poses such great
potential damage to the environment and is by far the most difficult to
solve."[5]  SCIENCE then called for "...a massive effort to use solar
power," saying, "To develop solar energy technology to supply large amounts
of power... should be a major priority of our civilization."

The IPCC's 1994 report offered new information concerning efforts to curb
emissions of greenhouse gases, such as CO2.  In 1992, 155 nations signed a
treaty in Rio de Janeiro pledging to stabilize atmospheric concentrations
of greenhouse gases at an unspecified level.  Toward that goal, developed
nations agreed in a nonbinding way to scale back their emissions to 1990
amounts by the year 2000. The treaty does not say whether countries must
cap their emissions after that time.  The wealthy nations produce about 80%
of greenhouse gases.

The 1994 IPCC assessment concludes that the guidelines set in the Rio
treaty will not stop the atmospheric accumulation of greenhouse gases. To
stabilize concentrations at today's amounts or even twice those, nations
will need to decrease their emissions to well below 1990 levels, Houghton
told SCIENCE NEWS.[3]

The Clinton administration has done little to bring the U.S. into
compliance with the 1992 treaty.  The NEW YORK TIMES reported in August,
1994, "During his campaign for the Presidency, Bill Clinton promised to set
higher standards for automotive fuel efficiency, but his Administration has
instead favored a largely voluntary approach, which has done little to
reduce automotive pollution."[6]  Worldwide, automobiles account for 1/3 of
all oil use.[4,pg.49]

The IPCC and the U.S. National Academy of Sciences agree that one major
effect of global warming is likely to be more extreme weather --longer
droughts, worse floods, hotter summers and colder winters, more and
stronger hurricanes, tornadoes and wind storms.  In 1994, the head of the
IPCC, Professor Bert Bolin of Stockholm University, warned that, "Most of
the damage due to climate change is going to be associated with extreme
events, not the smooth global increase of temperature that we call global
warming."[7]

In the U.S., the winter of 1994 broke low temperature records in several
eastern states.[8]  In June 1994, heat records were broken in the
southwestern U.S. when the thermometer hit 120 degrees Fahrenheit.[9]  In
Europe, 1994 set heat records from the Netherlands to Hungary and Poland;
German Environment Minister Klaus T"pfer said he was afraid the unusual
heat signaled a possible climate change from the greenhouse effect.[10]  A
heat wave in Japan set records in Tokyo in 1994, and blistering, prolonged
heat in India in June 1994 killed "thousands of people," according to the
NEW YORK TIMES.[10]

In early 1995 the NEW YORK TIMES reported that the Earth's AVERAGE
temperature during 1994 "approached the record high of almost 60 degrees
[Fahrenheit] measured in 1990."[11]  The all-time record, set in 1990, was
59.85 degrees Fahrenheit; the 1994 average was 59.58, making it the 4th
hottest year since record-keeping began in 1880. During 1991 and 1992, the
Earth had cooled as a result of the June, 1991, eruption of Mount Pinatubo,
a volcano in the Philippines which spread sulphur droplets throughout the
Earth's atmosphere at an altitude of about 12 miles, reducing the sunlight
striking the planet, thus driving down average global temperature by about
one degree Fahrenheit. Now the pre-Pinatubo warming has returned, says the
TIMES.

Dr. James E. Hansen, who heads the National Aeronautics and Space
Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York told
the TIMES in 1995 that he is "more confident than ever" that there is "a
real warming which is not just a chance fluctuation but is a long term
trend, and that trend is due to the greenhouse effect."[11,pg.A13]  Hansen
in 1981 published the first paper showing that the average temperature of
the Earth had, in fact, increased during the past 100 years, a finding that
is now widely accepted; the CAUSE of that temperature rise is still in
dispute because not all CLIMATOLOGISTS are yet convinced that the
greenhouse effect is causing the observable warming.  However, unlike
climatologists, much of the insurance industry is coming around to the view
that extremes of weather are increasing along with global temperature, and
that greenhouse gases (CO2 and others) are the cause.  

Munich Re, the world's largest re-insurance company (whose business is
insuring insurance companies against catastrophic losses) observed in 1993
that in the 10-year period 1983-1992 insured losses from natural disasters
were almost 12 times higher than in the decade of the 1960s, even allowing
for inflation.  Commenting on Munich Re's analysis, LLOYD'S LIST
INTERNATIONAL (a publication of Lloyd's, the London insurance giant)
writes, "The convenient theory that the increase in the size of losses is
mainly a reflection of higher wealth --and consequently, of insured values
--in those countries affected by natural disasters seems to be incorrect.
It is far more likely that other causes, such as climatic changes, have
already taken over as main factors pushing losses upwards."[7,pgs.108-109]

In late 1993, Skandia, one of Sweden's largest insurance companies, stopped
insuring weather-related damages.  Ake Munkhammar, Skandia's expert on
storms and natural catastrophes, said climatologists have the luxury of
delaying their decision as to whether the bounds of natural variation in
the weather have been exceeded, but insurance companies do not.[7,pg.135]
Climate change could bankrupt the insurance industry, and, without
insurance, civilization as we know it would be impossible.  

More next week.~                                                 

--Peter Montague

 =============== 

[1] David Schneider, "Global Warming is Still a Hot Topic," SCIENTIFIC
AMERICAN Vol. 272 No. 2 (February 1995), pgs. 13-14.

[2] Park's comments appeared on the Internet in the usenet news group
sci.environment February 12, 1995.  Park's e-mail address is
jjpark-AT-minerva.cis.yale.edu.  Thanks to Tony Tweedale of University of
Montana for forwarding Park's comments to us.

[3] Richard Monastersky, "Consensus reached on climate change causes,"
SCIENCE NEWS Vol. 146 (Sept 24, 1994), pg. 198.

[4] Cheryl Simon Silver and Ruth S. DeFries for the National Academy of
Sciences, ONE EARTH, ONE FUTURE: OUR CHANGING GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
(Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1990).

[5] Daniel E. Koshland, Jr., "Solar Power and Priorities," SCIENCE Vol. 245
No. 4920 (August 25, 1989), pg. 805.

[6] John H. Cushman, Jr., "Clinton Wants to Strengthen Global Pact on Air
Pollution," NEW YORK TIMES August 16, 1994, pg. A10.

[7] Quoted in Jeremy Leggett, editor, THE CLIMATE TIME BOMB; SIGNS OF
CLIMATE CHANGE FROM THE GREENPEACE DATABASE (Amsterdam, Netherlands:
Stichting Greenpeace Council, 1994), pg. 154.  This extraordinarily
comprehensive and useful volume is available for $25.00 from: Greenpeace,
1436 U Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20009; phone (202) 319-4444.  To
request information about a semiannual update to this volume, send e-mail
to lyn.goldsworthy-AT-green2.dat.de, or send regular mail to The Climate
Impacts Unit, Greenpeace International, P.O. Box 800, Surry Hills, New
South Wales 2010, Australia.

[8] Robert D. McFadden, "Bitter Cold Stings East, Shattering Record Lows,"
NEW YORK TIMES January 17, 1994, pg. B5.

[9] Southwestern heat records reported in William K. Stevens, "Georgia
Floods Reflect a Global Pattern," NEW YORK TIMES July 8, 1994, pg. A17.

[10] Craig R. Whitney, "Europe Wilts, Records Fall in Heat Wave," NEW YORK
TIMES August 3, 1994, pg. A5.

[11] William K. Stevens, "A Global Warming Resumed in 1994, Climate Data
Show," NEW YORK TIMES January 27, 1995, pgs. A1, A16.

Descriptor terms:  global environmental problems; atmosphere; carbon
dioxide; methane; nitrous oxide; fossil fuels; global warming; drought;
flooding; hurricanes; tornadoes; storms; wind; insurance; natural
disasters; natural catastrophes; seasonal change; ipcc; world
meteorological organization; unep; national academy of sciences; greenhouse
effect; solar energy; solar climate change treaty; bill clinton;
automobiles; james hansen; munich re; skandia;

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