Date: Tue, 10 Mar 1998 18:37:30 +1100
From: Rob Schaap <rws-AT-comserver.canberra.edu.au>
Subject: Re: M-TH: Dialectics and Paraconsistent Logic


G'day Thaxists,

Boddhi wrote:

>	The "Monty Hall" problem shows the falsity of paradoxes that do
>not accept their own premise.  There are three curtains.  One has a car
>behind it.  I pick one.  Monty opens a different one which proves not to
>have the car behind it.  Now there are two left, the one I picked and the
>other one.  The temptation is to believe that there is an equal
>probability the car is behind either of the two remaining curtains.  There
>isn't, of course, but when faced with a situation with two unknowns - one
>the right choice and one the wrong - one tends to make the fifty-fifty
>assumption.

I guess I'm either the only thickie here or the only one prepared to prove
it - but Boddhi's after a bite and I'm happy to make like a juvenile
red-fin perch (an Ozzie freshwater fish on whose dull intellect bait is
wasted - a naked hook'll do).  Why isn't there an equal probability?

Anticipating reddening embarrassment,
Rob.




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