From: "Russell Pearson" <r.pearson-AT-clara.net>
Subject: M-TH:Gambling chips
Date: Fri, 13 Mar 1998 19:44:21 -0000




boddhisatva wrote:
 >When a factory costs a billion dollars before it produces a single memory
 >chip, the capitalist system is laying out large bucks *in advance* of
sales.

An article in the techno-libertarian mag Wired (May 97), featured an
interview with one of the co-founders of Intel, Gordon E Moore. Moore
sprang to fame in the mid-sixties when he coined what's become known as
'Moore's Law', namely that the technology of chips we're using in our
computers would double in processing power every 18 months. So far he has
been right. However, in the article he talks of a distinct slowing down in
this rate, to perhaps once every three years. The key reason he asserts is
technological: that the industry has reached the physical limits of
engraving circuit boards using optical lithography. Lense technology has
now reached physical limits and he speculates about using X rays as a way
forward. 

What I found particularly interesting in this short interview was the way
it revealed the limits imposed by capital itself. Moore speaks of a US$200
billion industry investing 10% of its revenues into RnD. He also considers
what has become known as Moore's 2nd Law- that the cost of manufactoring
plant doubles every generation. Currently Intel has two plants costing $2.5
billion each and he suggests that future plants might cost some $10
billion. This makes me wonder whether we are witnessing a classic case of a
falling rate of profit in the most advanced sectors of industry. Does
anyone have any data/views on this?

A second limit is that of what the hell to do with the technology! Chips in
the design stage in May 97 had 10 million transistors on them. Moore
envisages a new generation of super chips with ten times that capacity, but
states:
 "We wouldn't have the foggiest idea what to do with a billion transistors
right now, except to put more memory in a chip and speed it up. But as far
as adding functionality, we don't know what can be done."

He further speculates about "DNA stuff" and "Quantum Devices"- the
"ultimate transistors" which are "pretty far out". Nevertheless, he's a
total optimist: "Engineers thrive on problems. They're trained to solve
problems. When they run out of problems, they become frustrated."

Russ








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