Date: Wed, 08 Mar 1995 23:53:23 +1000 From: Steve.Keen-AT-unsw.edu.au Subject: Re: Epochal trajectories Paul replied to my comment about chance that: This objection only applies to single points in phase space, a probabalistic theory - e.g. thermodynamics - is defined over ensembles of such points. But Paul, I wasn't arguing from probability: complexity theory is completely deterministic; it is the other end of the mathematical spectrum from probability theory. In a probabilistic framework, random events occur about a mean (in some form of distribution), and if the majority of events lean in a particular direction, then that's the way the system will tend. But in a deterministic but complex framework, one chance (sorry--a slight difference between two initial positions) difference is expanded exponentially over time. This is poorly expressed in the "butterfly concept"--that a butterfly flapping its wings in Peking can cause a hurricane in Florida-- but the basic idea is simple, and it applies as much to society as the weather. This is that historical events truly matter: a slight difference in "initial conditions" leads to an utterly different outcome. In such a system, it doesn't matter that 99% of social forces tend towards socialism, for example. If the other 1% was the starting position, then we'll never get to socialism. In other words, in a complex world, you can't trust in averages. Cheers, Steve Keen --- from list marxism-AT-lists.village.virginia.edu --- ------------------
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