From: JEFF SPARROW <jeffs-AT-werple.mira.net.au>
Subject: re: Conservatives win Australian election
Date: Mon, 2 Jul 2001 11:14:24 +-1000


Duh. I sent this earlier when the thread was still new. But for some reason it bounced. So I'm trying again, even though the discussion has moved on somewhat.

My two cents.

The election was quite different from 1993. The bosses were much more hesitant about backing the (conservative) Liberals - partly cos they got their fingers burnt last time, and partly because they didn't feel that the economy needed the kind of shock therapy that (the previous Liberal leader) John Hewson so clearly stood for. So by and large while business and the media supported a Liberal win, they were curiously tentative about it - the sentiment in the editorials in (even the conservative papers) in Victoria went along the lines "Well, Keating has done some good things, but Howard says he has more to offer. It won't do any harm to give him a go."

At the same time, it was clear that Howard's platform was much more moderate. The key element in his campaign was that a Howard victory would mean business as usual rather than full scale attacks on the union movement.

However, the scale of the conservative win has probably changed things a bit. There is now pressure from the bosses' papers on Howard to use his mandate
to achieve quick 'reforms', because it's unlikely he'll have an opportunty like this again. And even though there's not massive economic pressure on the Libs, there is a degree of ideological pressure from within their own camp - for so long, being a Liberal has meant union busting, and I think there's probably a sentiment from the ranks something like "At last, we can get on with it."

It's complicated by the fact that the date of the Victorian election has now been set for a month from now. Victoria has been the jewel in the Lib's crown, so Howard would probably not want to do anything in the next few weeks that could jeapardize the substantial lead that the conservatives have here.

What does the election mean for our side? You have to remember that many people now active in politics have never known a conservative federal government. The prevailing feeling amongst people I have spoken to is one of amazement that people could be so stupid as to vote for Howard and co (he has been a nasty fixture of Australian politics for something like 20 years). Because the left has been isolated from mass struggles for so long, a lot of people (especially students) are already quite contemptuous of ordinary people for not seeing the light, and I think the election result will add to that sentiment.

What would change things would be if the election sparked a round of union struggle. And about this I don't know. In the last few days, there have been mixed signals from the ACTU. During the campaign, Bill Kelty - an ACTU big wig - announced that if Howard won, the union movement would launch a campaign for a thirty per cent pay rise. Since then, he has come under fire from within the ACTU as being responsible for scaring people away from Labor.

But on the other hand, a number of unions have now announced that, with the accord between the ACTU and the government now defunct, they will be pursuing substantial wage claims. It's not clear (well, to me it isn't) the degree to which this is simply rhetoric. In the last few days, Howard has been deliberately conciliatory to the unions - it's possible this is just posturing from the officials to get a better bargaining position. We are talking about a union leadership that for the last few years have presided over the lowest rate of strikes ever recorded in Australian history.  Maybe, at last, they are going to do something...

Briefly, in terms of socialist alliances and left wing splits from the ALP - well, I can't see either happen. The federal ALP is not going to move to the left. It's more likely it will look like the hapless Labor opposition we have in Victoria - grey, faceless, standing for nothing.

Regards,
Jeff



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