Date: Thu, 7 Mar 1996 13:09:08 -0500
From: godenas-AT-mail.awi.net (Louis R. Godena)
Subject: IMF Warns Peru


IMF CAUTIONS PERU AS GROWTH SLIPS by Sally Bowen in Lima [Financial Times, 
March 7, 1996]

Peru's economic growth rate will fall to around 4 per cent this year, less 
than half the 1993-95 annual average, Mr Jorge Camet, economy and finance 
minister, said.  He predicted "very low and even negative" GDP figures for 
the first six months of the year, but recovery in the second half.

The forecasts came in a Tuesday evening speech to businessmen in which Mr. 
Camet was obliged to defend the government's economic record, following the 
leaking of a letter to Peru's economic team from Mr. Michael Camdessus, 
International Monetary Fund managing director.

The letter, date 20 February, expressed "concern" over the recent rise in 
inflation (an accumalted 2.8 per cent for the first two months) and the pace 
of import growth.  Mr. Candessus highlighted Peru's lower than expected 1995 
fiscal surplus and the high deficit on current account.

Peru owes some $9bn to the Paris Club.  But in his leaked letter, Mr 
Camdessus warned: "I do not believe it is realistic to hope the exceptional 
treatment given to Peru up to now by foreign creditors will continue at the 
same levels in the future."

Last year's current account deficit closed at $3.75bn, or 7.5 per cent of 
official GDP, according to central bank figures released this week.  Exports 
rose 22.3 per cent to $5.57bn on the back of high international minerals and 
commodities prices, but imports rose 37.9 per cent ot $7.69 bn, leaving a 
trade gap of $2.12 bn, more than double the 1994 total.  



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