Date: 30 Mar 96 02:59:57 EST
From: "Chris, London" <100423.2040-AT-compuserve.com>
To: marxismlist a <marxism-AT-jefferson.village.Virginia.EDU>
Subject: What's on in Peru?


People have drawn attention to the discrepancy between the low
level of activity associated with the PCP reported by conventional
journalists and NACLA, and the claims of the PPM/New Flag.

How do we account for this discrepancy? Clearly we do not know
for sure.

The figures New Flag give for the degree of militarisation of a country
the size of Peru, are presumably verifiable and striking.

What the PCP and its supporters are actually doing is more difficult to 
know. As with any organisation, data coming in may be unreliable for all
sorts of reasons. Muddle. Missing data. Fulfilling targets? 

Another factor appears to be that New Flag reports "actions" without
differentiating between political actions (presumably for 
example a village agitational meeting) and military ones. The PCP
may be developing more sophisticated methods of "armed" action, in which
the arms are present defensively but are not used, and the distinction 
may be difficult to make in aggregate figures. 

It would however be more credible if figures they submit took 
account of this problem. eg actions in which fighting took place?

The PCP may be catching up on broad front work, which appears to be a 
one-sidedly underdeveloped part of its activity, inherent perhaps in the 
way "Peoples War" was declared by the PCP rather than starting in defense
of some political gain already achieved.

The PCP may be getting more skilful in combining legal and illegal work.
The most impressive passage in Simon Strong's rather cynical book, is the 
epilogue describing a high level of clandestine organisation in one
significantly poor new settler district of Lima, Raucana. This was in 
1989-90, and the margin of openness within which clandestine PCP 
members were able to operate would probably have been drastically
reduced by the repression of the early 90's. 

Nevertheless we know from the fragments that Adolfo forwarded about 
Aczueta that he identified four individuals walking around Villa El Salvador
whom he was sure were members of the PCP, but whose membership was
presumably clandestine.

Technically the question is more familiar to me in the British Isles as
illustrated by the IRA who have a public and a clandestine face, very
skilfully managed. This places the authorities in the dilemma of 
whether to have "internment without trial", "faceless" courts 
("Diplock Courts") etc.

Or New Flag may have sources of funding, not in any way mysterious,
perhaps out of feelings of solidarity in the metropolitan imperialist
countries, which sustain its ability to produce apparently impressive 
reports while the level of what is happening in Peru has shrunk.

I suspect it will be several years before we know which way the 
balance of forces has really gone. Key bits of information on the way
as far as I can see, are whether there is evidence of sufficient
broad democratic pressure on the government over the privatisation of 
Peruvian oil, and how the government peace proposals to the guerrillas
are being handled.

I see no objection to New Flag posting authoritative reports with 
discretion - one a day might feel too much and turn people against
it - one a week would be read with interest, certainly by me.

At the same time I would like independent sources of information,
and if they appear on this l'st I would ask New Flag to make 
differences clear in a quiet and credible way, rather than 
indulging in a flame war whatever they may feel the provocation.

Chris





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