Date: Thu, 4 Jul 1996 10:14:42 +0200 (MET DST)
From: malecki-AT-algonet.se (Robert Malecki)
Subject: Turkey Talk..


Forward to M1
malecki

NEW U.S. SURROGATE IN MIDEAST -- TURKEY

EDITOR'S NOTE: The bomb attack on U.S. soldiers in Saudi Arabia is only
one ominous sign of escalating violence in the Middle East. And as one
result the U.S. is looking increasingly to Turkey as a surrogate power
that can keep the region in its orbit. But Turkey's reemergence is
anything but reassuring, either to Arab states or Iran. PNS associate
editor Franz Schurmann, professor emeritus of history and sociology at
the University of California, Berkeley, reads widely in the Arab and
Turkish language news media and has lived and traveled in the Middle
East. PNS stories can also be found on our web page at
<http://www.pacificnews.org/jinn/>.

BY FRANZ SCHURMANN, PACIFIC NEWS SERVICE

Even as the recent bomb attack in Dhahran rivets world attention on the
stability of Saudi Arabia, the new linchpin for holding together U.S.
strategic interests in the Mideast may be popularly Islamic but
officially secular Turkey. Yet after 70 years of self-imposed isolation
>from Mideast politics, Turkey's re-emergence as a major player will be
anything but reassuring for peace in the region.

Ever since the overthrow in November 1978 of the Shah in Iran, Washington
has been searching for a surrogate power to lead a new alliance system
that would keep the region securely within the U.S. orbit. When Israel
and Turkey announced the conclusion of a military alliance just before
the Israeli elections on May 28, the Arab world knew who had been chosen
as the new surrogate -- Turkey. The hurried Arab summit in Cairo of all
29 Arab states except Iraq was as much a response to this bombshell as to
Netanyahu's victory.

Remembering 500 years of being ruled by the Turkish Ottoman empire, these
Arab states suddenly envisioned themselves crushed between a re-emerging
Turkish empire on the one hand and an accelerating Islamic revolution on
the other. The Saudi bomb blast is only the latest reminder that the
region's religious revolutionaries remain as volcanic as ever.

There is little mystery as to why Israel has gotten on board this new
imperial carrier. Most Israelis, as evident by their votes, have lost
hope in the peace process. They know Turkey to be a long-time friend,
since it recognized the Jewish state as early as 1949. And many believe
that their always-precarious security is greater within a
U.S.-Turkey-Israel triple alliance than a dubious peace with the Arab
states.

Israeli president Ezer Weizmann, in Ankara to celebrate the alliance,
reflected the new Israeli clout when he spoke of a joint Turkish-Israeli
"pincers movement" against Syria to force it to come to terms. Soon
thereafter, Turkish troops began massing on the Syrian border, sending a
clear message about the new regional line-up to both Damascus and Cairo
where the Arab summit was taking place.

There also is little mystery as to why Turkey, so long against getting
re-involved in the Islamic Mideast, this time took the plunge. With the
country in deep internal trouble, the powerful military has evidently
decided they have a better chance of surviving politically at home by
expanding military involvements beyond their borders.

Politically the old Westernized secular state of Ataturk is
disintegrating as a surging new Islamic party, the Refah, rises from
below and a two-decades old Kurdish insurgency festers in the country's
impoverished eastern provinces. Three times in the past 40 years -- 1960,
1971 and 1980 -- the military took over the government, the first time
hanging the prime minister. A fourth intervention, however, could
conceivably trigger a popular revolt against the military, as happened in
the Shah's Iran.

In contrast to the situation at home, Turkey's clout abroad is growing.
Turkey is the U.S.'s second most important partner in NATO after Germany,
serving as the alliance's southeastern anchor. Its giant Ataturk dam on
the upper Euphrates gives Turkey a choke-hold on Syria and Iraq. Israel's
military-industrial complex meshes well with Turkey's own.

But one recent event appears to have finally pushed the Turkish military
to move into the Mideastern cauldron -- the signing of a joint action
pact between the leader of the Kurdish insurgency in Turkey, Abdullah
Ocalan, and his counterpart in Iraq, Mas'ud Barzani. The Turkish
military's response to this first transnational Kurdish insurgency in
modern times now has been to launch its biggest incursion yet into
Kurdish-inhabited northern Iraq.

Netanyahu's election on May 28 combined with news of the Turkish-Israeli
alliance has brought the current Mideast peace process to a halt. The
question on all Mideasterners' minds now is: Where is the region heading?
The answer, unfortunately, appears to be -- more violence.

An immediate and ominous response came from Iran's long-time prime
minister Hashemi Rafsanjani. When he heard about the Turkey-Israel pact,
he said: "This means they're getting ready to bomb Teheran."

(07011996)      **** END ****   (c) COPYRIGHT PNS






     --- from list marxism-AT-lists.village.virginia.edu ---