From: "Rosser Jr, John Barkley" <rosserjb-AT-jmu.edu>
Subject: Wei En Lin on Kurdistan situation
Date: Wed, 4 Sep 1996 02:07:33 -0400 ()


     In response to Wei En Lin's comments I would note that
     1)  Iraq is not the only Arab nation with a majority 
Shi'is.  Yemen is also, although they are of the Zay'di 
sect of Shi'i Islam.  Also, Shi'is outnumber Sunnis in 
Lebanon and are the largest single group in Lebanon at 
around 40% of the population, but not a majority there.
     2)  It remains unclear whether or not there really has 
been an incursion into Iraq by Iran and if so by how far, 
despite the claims by Massoud Barzani.  Certainly the split 
between the Iraqi Kurdish factions runs very deep and they 
have been fighting with each other since 1994.  Talabani 
had been tilting increasingly towards Iran and given that 
it appears that Saddam is not about to be overthrown 
anytime soon, it was not unreasonable for Barzani to tilt 
to him and gain an advantage in the dispute as a result.
     3)  Another reason why the US may not be bombing the 
northern Iraqi "assets" may be strictly 
military/diplomatic.  The bases from which to do so easily 
are located in Turkey which has not given permission for 
their use in such strikes.  My guess would be that Saddam 
did not make his move without some such assurance along 
such lines from the Turks, for precisely this reason.  That 
means the US has had to use its Gulf-based ships and 
bombers from there would have been at greater risk having 
to overfly much of Iraq to get to Kurdistan.  But cruise 
missiles into southern Iraq from the Gulf are no big deal 
for Clinton politically who certainly does not want any 
dead American boys (or girls) in this electoral season.
Barkley Rosser

-- 
Rosser Jr, John Barkley
rosserjb-AT-jmu.edu




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