Date: Thu, 4 Apr 96 13:04:41 GMT
Subject: Re: Imperialist rivalry and scenarios..



> 
> Imperialist rivalry and scenarios...
> 
> For some reason i get the feeling that some fundemental changes have 
> appeared in the imperialist camp since the fall of the Soviet Union. 
<cut>

Sure, the underlying tensions have come to the fore, since there is
no common enemy any more. Although, to speculate a bit, perhaps they
might have anyway, since the US economy had shrunk relative to the
world economy since 1945.

> 
> When i say three main imperialist currents, i mean specifically;
> 
<cut>

Even posing the problem in this way shows the different problems the
various Imperialist blocs face.

The main flashpoint at present is within one of the blocs outlined ie
between China and Taiwan.

Also, I would actually disagree with putting the UK in with the US, and 
describe it as part of the European bloc. Similarly, I'd put Australia 
in the "Far East" bloc, as one of the main competitors for hegemony 
within it, as far as this bloc exists.

It should also be bourn in mind that the Germany economy is smaller than
that of Japan, and Japans smaller than the US ( I'd guess approximately
ratios of 1:2:4 ).

None of the hegemonic states ( US, Japan, Germany ) have a clearly defined
role. In the case of the US, it acts as the world policeman, in particular
guaranteeing the oil supply. In strategic terms, this oil supply is actually
more important to Japan than it is to the US. The problem Japan has is that
the pacific tigers are as integrated with the US economy as they are with
the Japanese. Germany, while it is the largest power in Europe, cannot
dominate Europe on its own but has to have one of France or Britain on
board, or perhaps every other state in Europe against these two.


Also, Russia with its zone of influence ( the "near abroad" ) should be
seen in a similar light to the other three.


I think the greatest mistake that can be made is to draw a direct 
equivalence between economic power and military power. Instead,
I think it should be recognised that if anything the opposite is the case,
and it is this which is a great source of instability, as China vs Taiwan
illustrates.

Adam.

Adam Rose
SWP
Manchester
UK


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