Date: Thu, 4 Apr 1996 20:34:54 +0200 (MET DST)
Subject: Re: Imperialist rivalry and scenarios..


>
>> 
>> Imperialist rivalry and scenarios...
>> 
>> For some reason i get the feeling that some fundemental changes have 
>> appeared in the imperialist camp since the fall of the Soviet Union. 
><cut>
>
>Sure, the underlying tensions have come to the fore, since there is
>no common enemy any more. Although, to speculate a bit, perhaps they
>might have anyway, since the US economy had shrunk relative to the
>world economy since 1945.
>
>> 
>> When i say three main imperialist currents, i mean specifically;
>> 
><cut>
>
>Even posing the problem in this way shows the different problems the
>various Imperialist blocs face.
>
>The main flashpoint at present is within one of the blocs outlined ie
>between China and Taiwan.
>
>Also, I would actually disagree with putting the UK in with the US, and 
>describe it as part of the European bloc. Similarly, I'd put Australia 
>in the "Far East" bloc, as one of the main competitors for hegemony 
>within it, as far as this bloc exists.

I have difficulties with this scenario. Britain would rather be a mini 
partner to the US then play seconf fiddle too Germany. And Australia i just 
can,t believe can hav any hegemony against Japan or China. This just sounds 
impossible too me...
>
>It should also be bourn in mind that the Germany economy is smaller than
>that of Japan, and Japans smaller than the US ( I'd guess approximately
>ratios of 1:2:4 ).

So this poses the question of just what Germany will do in the future...
>
>None of the hegemonic states ( US, Japan, Germany ) have a clearly defined
>role. In the case of the US, it acts as the world policeman, in particular
>guaranteeing the oil supply. In strategic terms, this oil supply is actually
>more important to Japan than it is to the US. The problem Japan has is that
>the pacific tigers are as integrated with the US economy as they are with
>the Japanese. Germany, while it is the largest power in Europe, cannot
>dominate Europe on its own but has to have one of France or Britain on
>board, or perhaps every other state in Europe against these two.

I was thinking that an axis of Germany, France, eastern europe and white 
Russia as one scenario for Germany..
>
>
>Also, Russia with its zone of influence ( the "near abroad" ) should be
>seen in a similar light to the other three.
>
>
>I think the greatest mistake that can be made is to draw a direct 
>equivalence between economic power and military power. Instead,
>I think it should be recognised that if anything the opposite is the case,
>and it is this which is a great source of instability, as China vs Taiwan
>illustrates.
>
>Adam.
>
>Adam Rose
>SWP
>Manchester
>UK
>
>
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