Date: Thu, 11 Apr 96 12:07:50 GMT
Subject: Re: Imperialist rivalry and scenarios... China



With all due respect to Wolfgang, it's nothing like FRG and GDR.

The Republic of China has a population measured in billions, Taiwan's is
20 million. China is the major military super power in the region,
Taiwan, despite being armed to the teeth by the US, is small fry.

China is, or certainly wants to, play a similar role to Czarist Russia
before WW1 - opposed to democracy within its borders, a "prison house
of nations" , and crushing democracy outside its borders.

Democracy has been fought for against both free market and state capitalist
regimes, and it goes without saying that democracy is in the interests of
workers ( I hope ! ).

If China successfully invades Taiwan and crushes democracy there, it will be
harder for workers to fight for democracy and socialism throughout the
region, in China, Hong Kong, or Taiwan.

This means that socialists should not support China, nor even abstain, but
should hope for a defeat for China should such a war start.

This does not however, mean that we should be in favour of US intervention - 
for precisely the reason that that we oppose China, namely, that the US
will support those elements of Taiwanese society that opposed democracy in
Taiwan in the first place, against the wave of strikes and demonstrations
in the late 80's. Also, US intervention would inevitably transform the war
into a war between two major super powers, in which case socialists on both
sides should adopt a revolutionary defeatist position.

Of course, in a straight military confrontation, with no help from the US,
Taiwan would inevitably lose. The only hope would be democratic workers
opposition to China in Hong Konk and mainland China itself, and perhaps 
in its army. The more thorough going the democracy in Taiwan is, including
in the workplace. the more likely this would be.

Obviously.

Adam.

Adam Rose
SWP
Manchester
UK


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