Date: Wed, 10 Nov 1999 22:58:13 -0500 (EST)
From: Andrew Libby <alibby-AT-panix.com>
Subject: India (fwd)


Date: Mon, 8 Nov 1999 20:31:13 -0600 (EST)
From: "alert-AT-stratfor.com" <alert-AT-stratfor.com>
To: redalert-AT-stratfor.com
Subject: India


___________________________________________

NEW!

Check out Stratfor.com's homepage for the third part of our series,
Russia2000. Moscow combats the separatist impulses of its regions
and attempts to reassert control over greater Russia.
http://www.stratfor.com/
___________________________________________


STRATFOR.COM
Global Intelligence Update
November 9, 1999

India Goes On High Alert

Summary:

India has placed troops on the Chinese border on "maximum alert."
While the new alert status was triggered by the movement of Chinese
forces, it is unlikely that the two nations will clash. Instead,
the impact will be felt within India itself. Overextended on most
points of the compass -- by starving cyclone victims in the
southeast, Pakistani militants in the northwest and separatists in
the northeast -- the military is now likely to crack down on one of
its problems. The most likely target: the separatist United
Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA), in the north.


Analysis:

Indian troops on the Arunachal Pradesh section, in the extreme
northern section of the India-China border, went on maximum alert
Nov. 7, in response to China's increased "activities," according to
an Indian army commander speaking to the Press Trust of India (PTI)
. Lt. Gen. D.B. Shekatkar attributed the increased vigilance to
China's construction of a road on its own side of the border and
incursions into territory that India considers its own.

The move further burdens the already overextended 1.1 million man
Indian Army, and may soon force it into a concerted effort to
resolve one or more of its burdensome commitments. Several
situations have recently stretched military resources. In the weeks
since the Pakistani coup, the army has strengthened security along
the Pakistani border. Units stationed in Kashmir have remained on
high alert, particularly since militants stormed a headquarters in
Srinagar Nov. 4, killing seven personnel.

Indeed, if India had more forces available to guard Srinagar, the
raid might not have been such a deadly surprise. Finally, recent
cyclones in the southeast have tied up still more troops, who now
work to calm starving mobs and distribute aid in the region.

Even before the recent announcement, India intensified its watch on
the northern border between the state of Assam and the neighboring
kingdom of Bhutan. Members of the separatist United Liberation
Front of Assam (ULFA), a group that has fought for Assam's
independence since 1979, have been in hiding in Bhutan and have
reportedly been preparing to shift operations back into India.
Since 1979, more than 10,000 have been killed in conflicts with
ULFA. [ http://www.stratfor.com/SERVICES/GIU/121698.ASP ] In 
addition to battling ULFA, the military has been tied down by 
other separatist movements in the state.

Very recently, an overstretched military has tempted the country's
many separatist movements. At the peak of the Kashmir conflict in
June, for example, the army had to pull troops out of Kashmir to
counter increased threats from Pakistan to the Indian state of
Gujarat. In turn, troops withdrew from Assam to deploy into
Kashmir. The Assam separatists seized the opportunity to launch
greater attacks on infrastructure targets, bombing highways and
railroads.
[ http://www.stratfor.com/asia/specialreports/special45.htm ]

In the hope of avoiding a similar situation, India will seek to
eliminate - or at least ease - the problem it can most quickly
solve. And it is likely to act quickly, before opponents can take
advantage of the army's predicament. The country's separatist
movements, after all, are more than mere internal disputes; arch-
enemy Pakistan actively supports separatists in both Assam and
Kashmir.

Because it has little hope of quickly resolving the 52-year old
struggle over Kashmir, India has two far more feasible options. It
can step up its ongoing diplomatic initiatives toward Beijing to
keep its northern border with China secure. Or New Delhi can launch
a pre-emptive strike on the most vulnerable separatist: ULFA
militants who are reportedly planning to move from Bhutan into
India. This could then further the military's goals, allowing a
broader and more decisive campaign against all separatists in
Assam.

Conversely, the new alert status is unlikely to lead to border
skirmishes with the Chinese. Shekatkar, the army commander in the
area, made several comments to the PTI suggesting the situation
remained relatively low-key, despite the alert. He specifically
stated that the problem would not escalate into a "Kargil-type"
conflict, and even excused the Chinese violation of the Line of
Control by saying the incidents were "bound to take place as there
was no demarcated actual Line of Control." He later said that top
army officials of the two countries hold at least monthly border
meetings to defuse tension and solve problems.

More broadly, India appears interested in strengthening relations
with China. Recent events are overriding traditional antagonism.
Hoping to gain Chinese support during the Kargil conflict in June,
Indian Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh told Beijing's foreign
minister, Tang Jiaxuan, that India did not consider his country a
threat. Afterwards, Tang said Sino-Indian relations had "entered a
phase of improvement." Most recently, President K.R. Narayanan told
the parliament Oct. 25 that India should continue its dialogue with
China to improve and broaden relations. But over the long run,
improved relations with China, are likely to take time and could be
difficult to maintain.

India needs a quicker fix, and may find it in a strike to quash
ULFA militants in Assam. Recent attempts at negotiations with the
group have been fruitless. Its leaders recently spurned an offer of
safe passage; it is possible that the offer was in fact a set-up.
Now the military will have both good reason and timing for a
strike. ULFA members hiding in the Bhutanese jungles reportedly
plan to shift their bases back into India. Indian forces have been
trying to catch members sneaking back not merely into Assam but
also into the states of Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh. India can
attack them while they are the most vulnerable - while they are in
transit.




(c) 1999, Stratfor, Inc.
__________________________________________________

SUBSCRIBE to FREE, DAILY GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE UPDATES (GIU)
http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/subscribe.asp

or send your name, organization, position, mailing
address, phone number, and e-mail address to
alert-AT-stratfor.com

UNSUBSCRIBE FROM THE GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE UPDATES (GIU)
http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/subscribe.asp
___________________________________________________

STRATFOR.COM
504 Lavaca, Suite 1100
Austin, TX 78701
Phone: 512-583-5000
Fax: 512-583-5025
Internet: http://www.stratfor.com/
Email: info-AT-stratfor.com
___________________________________________________







     --- from list postcolonial-AT-lists.village.virginia.edu ---