Date: Tue, 28 Jan 2003 09:49:10 +0000
From: Liam Connell <L.Connell-AT-herts.ac.uk>
Subject: RE: liberation of iraq


Mark

Re 2) many of the reports over here suggest that the US will *not* honour 
existing oil contracts on the premise that they were agreed by an illegal 
regime.

Re 3) apparently the US has started to buy greater amounts of Iraqi oil to 
break a strike by oil workers in Venezuela so the supply model is more 
complicated than you imply.

I was at a seminar last night where Milan Rai, author of _War Plan Iraq: 
Ten Reasons against War on Iraq,_ was speaking.  His line on this is a) 
that the military objective in Iraq is not about regime change but about 
regime stabilisation through leadership change, thus raising questions 
about future human rights in Iraq even after a war; and b) that the real 
issue for the US in respect of oil is not oil supply but oil price, which 
needs to remain high to make US oil production profitable.  The US control 
of Iraqi oil, therefore would not necessarily be about stealing the oil 
from the French and the Russians (although I don't think this can be ruled 
out and I think this explains French and Russian hesitation over the war to 
some extent) but about controlling the flow of oil in the interests of US 
economic stability and the profits of the oil industry in the US which is, 
un-coincidentally, heavily represented in the present US administration.

Liam


Mark E Hall At 07:08 28/01/03 +0900, you wrote:
>But you are ignoring the facts that: 1) the french and Russians hold the
>majority of the oil leases in
>Iraq; and 2) the US government aid any regime change will honor those
>French and Russian oil leases; and 3) the bulk of the oil currently used
>by the USA is from South America and Indonesia.  The Europeans and
>Japanese are the ones that use the majority of the oil being pumped out
>of Saudia Arabia and Iraq right now.  Also, you are ignoring the fact
>that the bulk of the oilfield equipment sitting in Iraq is als Russian
>made; Western pipe sizes, fittings, etc. don't work well with the
>Russian fittings, pipes, etc.
>
>Details, details, details.
>
>Best, MEH
>
>
>
>
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_________________________________

Dr Liam Connell
Department of Humanities
University of Hertfordshire
Wall Hall
Watford Campus
Aldenham
WD25 8AT



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