File spoon-archives/postcolonial.archive/postcolonial_2003/postcolonial.0304, message 160


Date: Thu, 17 Apr 2003 20:53:16 -0700 (PDT)
From: Felix Guattari the Seconde <verlainelefou-AT-yahoo.com>
Subject: somer Russian Speculations...


--0-1069202271-1050637996=:44406


>From CounterPunch

Virtual Saddam Takes Aim
BORIS KAGARLITSKY
When the war in Iraq first began, many expected
      it to last no more than two or three days. The cheerleaders of
      U.S. military might immediately declared that Saddam Hussein's
      regime had crumbled. The only question left was how many hours
      it would take coalition forces to reach Baghdad. When the allied
      advance stalled a few days later, Russian patriotic publications
      joyously predicted that the Iraqi brass -- trained in Soviet
      military academies -- would crush the hated "Yankees" 
      Then the situation changed again, and the attacking armies began
      occupying Iraq's cities with unexpected ease. When they entered
      Baghdad, U.S. forces found no serious defensive installations
      in place, and no evidence of preparations for an extended conflict.
      The bridges and buildings were not mined. No permanent weapon
      emplacements were discovered.Television reports showed a couple of
      hundred people pulling down a statue of Hussein on a half-empty
      square in the city center. To call them "exultant crowds"
      would have required a very active imagination. While the victors
      patrolled the city in disbelief, Baghdad's residents stayed put
      in their homes. The streets belonged to looters -- the third
      force in this conflict, and its only real winner. At the same
      time, tens of thousands of Republican Guards simply disappeared
      along with the regular army, the security services and civil
      servants. Thousands of foreign volunteers also vanished somehow,
      though you'd have thought they might find it hard to hide in
      a strange city. Hundreds of tanks and other vehicles seemed to
      sink into the sand. Had they really been destroyed or abandoned,
      the Baghdad suburbs would have been littered with mangled machinery
      and reporters would have documented the fact. Iraqi troops also
      disappeared from Basra, though it was surrounded by British forces.
      Worst of all, the Iraqi leadership seemed to evaporate. The allies
      couldn't catch any of them, even "Chemical Ali," who
      was reported to be in the south of Iraq, and then suddenly turned
      up in the north.Military analysts have had trouble making
      sense of the conflict because it is proceeding by a different
      set of rules --those of politics and the information war. Had
      Hussein's regime collapsed on its own, we would have seen the
      process of disintegration unfold over a number of days or even
      weeks. The disappearance of Iraq's entire military and political
      establishment is evidence of the opposite. The ruling elite is
      in full control of the situation, and is acting according to
      plan. What does it hope to achieve?

    Optimists in the Russian military assumed
      that Hussein was luring the enemy into the capital, as Prince
      Mikhail Kutuzov did before driving Napoleon's army from Russia
      in 1812. More cynical commentators suggested that the coalition
      had simply struck a deal with the Iraqis. When they entered Basra,
      British troops found total chaos, possibly instigated in part
      by Hussein's secret police. Following several weeks of anarchy,
      it will become clear that Iraq cannot be governed without the
   "proven personnel"; of the old regime. At that point,
      the Republican Guard and its generals will emerge once more from
      their homes, now in league with the Americans. Hussein and his
      sons, if they are still alive, will continue to call the shots
      from behind the scenes.We will soon know how closely this prediction
      corresponds to reality. One thing is already clear, however:
      The events in Iraq are not over; they're just getting started.
      In forcing Hussein's regime out of Baghdad, the allies have rendered
      Iraq ungovernable. The democratic alternative for Iraq that they
      talk about at press conferences was never more than propaganda.
      As a result, Washington and London don't have much of a choice
      about how to proceed. They can run the country as an occupying
      regime, risking increasing guerrilla activity in the cities,
      civil war and resistance from Hussein's clan, which has far from
      lost its political and military capabilities. Or they can make
      a deal with Hussein's people.In any case, Hussein has acted sensibly.
      By surrendering Iraq's cities more or less without a fight, he
      avoided untold casualties. And now Hussein has been transformed
      from a real dictator into a virtual leader. In this capacity
      he will prove all the more useful to his people -- or rather,
      less harmful. He will no longer issue idiotic decrees, execute
      his own generals, or put people in prison. Instead, he could
      become the symbol of an invincible and invulnerable resistance.
      Hiding out in safe apartments, Hussein is fully capable of inflicting
      disgrace upon the mighty United States. 



Je pense a la chaleur que tisse la parole
   au centre de noyau qu'on appelle nous


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From CounterPunch

Virtual Saddam Takes Aim
BORIS KAGARLITSKY
When the war in Iraq first began, many expected
      it to last no more than two or three days. The cheerleaders of
      U.S. military might immediately declared that Saddam Hussein's
      regime had crumbled. The only question left was how many hours
      it would take coalition forces to reach Baghdad. When the allied
      advance stalled a few days later, Russian patriotic publications
      joyously predicted that the Iraqi brass -- trained in Soviet
      military academies -- would crush the hated "Yankees"
      Then the situation changed again, and the attacking armies began
      occupying Iraq's cities with unexpected ease. When they entered
      Baghdad, U.S. forces found no serious defensive installations
      in place, and no evidence of preparations for an extended conflict.
      The bridges and buildings were not mined. No permanent weapon
      emplacements were discovered.Television reports showed a couple of
      hundred people pulling down a statue of Hussein on a half-empty
      square in the city center. To call them "exultant crowds"
      would have required a very active imagination. While the victors
      patrolled the city in disbelief, Baghdad's residents stayed put
      in their homes. The streets belonged to looters -- the third
      force in this conflict, and its only real winner. At the same
      time, tens of thousands of Republican Guards simply disappeared
&nb sp;     along with the regular army, the security services and civil
      servants. Thousands of foreign volunteers also vanished somehow,
      though you'd have thought they might find it hard to hide in
      a strange city. Hundreds of tanks and other vehicles seemed to
      sink into the sand. Had they really been destroyed or abandoned,
      the Baghdad suburbs would have been littered with mangled machinery
      and reporters would have documented the fact. Iraqi troops also
      disappeared from Basra, though it was surrounded by British forces.
      Worst of all, the Iraqi leadership seemed to evaporate. The allies
      couldn't catch any of them, even "Chemical Ali," who
      was reported to be in the south of Iraq, and then suddenly turned
      up in the north.Military analysts have had trouble making
      sense of the conflict because it is proceeding by a different
      set of rules --those of politics and the information war. Had
      Hussein's regime collapsed on its own, we would have seen the
      process of disintegration unfold over a number of days or even
      weeks. The disappearance of Iraq's entire military and political
      establishment is evidence of the opposite. The ruling elite is
      in full control of the situation, and is acting according to
      plan. What does it hope to achieve?

    Optimists in the Russian military assumed
      that Hussein was luring the enemy into the capital, as Prince
      Mikhail Kutuzov did before driving Napoleon's army from Russia
      in 1812. More cynical commentators suggested that the coalition
      had simply struck a deal with the Iraqis. When they entered Basra,
      British troops found total chaos, possibly instigated in part
      by Hussein's secret police. Following several weeks of anarchy,
      it will become clear that Iraq cannot be governed without the
   "proven personnel"; of the old regime. At that point,
      the Republican Guard and its generals will emerge once more from
      their homes, now in league with the Americans. Hussein and his
      sons, if they are still alive, will continue to call the shots
      from behind the scenes.We will soon know how closely this prediction
      corresponds to reality. One thing is already clear, however:
      The events in Iraq are not over; they're just getting started.
      In forcing Hussein's regime out of Baghdad, the allies have rendered
      Iraq ungovernable. The democratic alternative for Iraq that they
      talk about at press conferences was never more than propaganda.
      As a result, Washington and London don't have much of a choice
      about how to proceed. They can run the country as an occupying
      regime, risking increasing guerrilla activity in the cities,
      civil war and resistance from Hussein's clan, which has far from
      lost its political and military capabilities. Or they can make
      a deal with Hussein's people.In any case, Hussein has acted sensibly.
      By surrendering Iraq's cities more or less without a fight, he
      avoided untold casualties. And now Hussein has been transformed
      from a real dictator into a virtual leader. In this capacity
      he will prove all the more useful to his people -- or rather,
      less harmful. He will no longer issue idiotic decrees, execute
      his own generals, or put people in prison. Instead, he could
      become the symbol of an invincible and invulnerable resistance.
      Hiding out in safe apartments, Hussein is fully capable of inflicting
      disgrace upon the mighty United States.



Je pense a la chaleur que tisse la parole
au centre de noyau qu'on appelle nous



Do you Yahoo!?
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